Let the Past Collapse on Time! by Vladimir Sorokin | The New York Review of Books

From Vladimir Sorokin:

Yeltsin, who was tired after climbing to the top of the pyramid, left the structure completely undisturbed, but brought an heir along with him: Putin, who immediately informed the population that he viewed the collapse of the USSR as a geopolitical catastrophe. He also quoted the conservative Alexander III, who believed that Russia had only two allies: the army and the navy. The machine of the Russian state moved backward, into the past, becoming more and more Soviet every year.

In my view, this fifteen-year journey back to the USSR under the leadership of a former KGB lieutenant colonel has shown the world the vicious nature and archaic underpinnings of the Russian state’s “vertical power” structure, more than any “great and terrible” Putin….A country such as this cannot have a predictable, stable future….

Unpredictability has always been Russia’s calling card, but since the Ukrainian events, it has grown to unprecedented levels: no one knows what will happen to our country in a month, in a week, or the day after tomorrow. I think that even Putin doesn’t know; he is now hostage to his own strategy of playing “bad guy” to the West…..If you compare the post-Soviet bear to the Soviet one, the only thing they have in common is the imperial roar. However, the post-Soviet bear is teeming with corrupt parasites that infected it during the 1990s, and have multiplied exponentially in the last decade. They are consuming the bear from within. Some might mistake their fevered movement under the bear’s hide for the working of powerful muscles. But in truth, it’s an illusion.

Translated from the Russian by Jamey Gambrell.

Read more at Let the Past Collapse on Time! by Vladimir Sorokin | The New York Review of Books.

A compassionate conservative: Arthur C. Brooks

Bill Moyers interviews the American Enterprise Institute’s president Arthur C. Brooks on how to fight America’s widening inequality.

“The problem is we have a bit of a conspiracy between the right and left to have people now who are tending to be more part of the machine…We need a new kind of moral climate for our future leaders.”

Work for the Dole doesn’t work – but here is what does

From Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics at University of Melbourne:

…95% of the time a government spends thinking about unemployment should be spent thinking about ways to promote economic growth.

Read more at Work for the Dole doesn't work – but here is what does.

Calm before the storm as Europe poised to join economic war against Russia – Telegraph Blogs

From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

Vladimir Putin

Russia is battening down the hatches. The central bank was forced to raise interest rates this morning to 8pc to defend the rouble and stem capital flight, $75bn so far this year and clearly picking up again.

The strange calm on the Russian markets is starting to break as investors mull the awful possibility that Europe will impose sanctions after all, shutting Russian banks out of global finance.

…Lars Christensen from Danske Bank said the inflexion point will come if the EU does in fact impose “Tier III” measures aimed at crippling the Russian banking system, as now seems likely. “That is when the lights will turn off for the Russian market. We will see capital flight of a whole different nature,” he said.

The world is entering a dangerous phase. Having escalated the conflict in Eastern Ukraine into a proxy war, the Kremlin seems unwilling or unable to back down despite rising US and EU sanctions. This is not another Afghanistan. The stakes are far higher. The 100th anniversary of the outbreak of WWI reminds us that Eastern Europe is a tinder box for major global conflicts. While a ‘hot war’ is unlikely — both sides have too much to lose — Eastern Ukraine could well ignite another cold war. Peace proves elusive.

Peace is an armistice in a war that is continuously going on.

~ Thucydides ( c. 460 – c. 395 BC), History of the Peloponnesian War

Read more at Calm before the storm as Europe poised to join economic war against Russia – Telegraph Blogs.

World wakes to APRA paralysis | Macrobusiness

Posted by Houses & Holes:

Bloomberg has a penetrating piece today hammering RBA/APRA complacency on house prices, which will be read far and wide in global markets (as well as MB is!):

Central banks from Scandinavia to the U.K. to New Zealand are sounding the alarm about soaring mortgage debt and trying to curb risky lending. In Australia, where borrowing is surging, regulators are just watching.

Australia has the third-most overvalued housing market on a price-to-income basis, after Belgium and Canada, according to the International Monetary Fund. The average home price in the nation’s eight major cities rose 16 percent as of June 30 from a May 2012 trough, the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index showed.

“There’s definitely room for caps on lending,” said Martin North, Sydney-based principal at researcherDigital Finance Analytics. “Global house price indices are all showing Australia is close to the top, and the RBA has been too myopic in adjusting to what’s been going on in the housing market.”

Australian regulators are hesitant to impose nation-wide rules as only some markets have seen strong price growth, said Kieran Davies, chief economist at Barclays Plc in Sydney.

…“The RBA’s probably got at the back of its mind that we’re only in the early stages of the adjustment in the mining sector,” Davies said. “Mining investment still has a long way to fall, and also the job losses to flow from that. So to some extent, the house price growth is a necessary evil.”

…The RBA, in response to an e-mailed request for comment, referred to speeches and papers by Head of Financial Stability Luci Ellis.

…The RBA and APRA have acknowledged potential benefits of loan limits “but at this stage they don’t believe that this type of policy action is necessary,” said David Ellis, a Sydney-based analyst at Morningstar Inc. “If the housing market was out of control and if loan growth, particularly investor credit, grew exponentially then it’d be introduced.”

What do you call this, David:

ScreenHunter_3294 Jul. 14 11.51

Reproduced with kind permission from Macrobusiness

It started with a Super Bowl ring, now Putin is taking whole countries

Robert Kraft, owner of the New England Patriots, says Vladimir Putin stole his prize Super Bowl ring in 2005:

“I took out the ring and showed it to [Putin], and he put it on and he goes, ‘I can kill someone with this ring.’ I put my hand out and he put it in his pocket, and three KGB guys got around him and walked out.”

Kraft revealed that he hadn’t intended to part with his prize from the Patriots’ win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX. He claims that a call from the White House kept him from attempting to recover it. The official overcame Kraft’s objections, repeatedly saying:

It would really be in the best interest of US-Soviet relations if you meant to give the ring as a present.

This may have been a mistake by the Bush administration, considering that Vladimir Putin has graduated to seizing parts of Georgia, the Crimea and now has his eyes on Eastern Ukraine. As Winston Churchill would have said:

An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile hoping it will eat him last.

Read more at Kraft: Putin stole Bowl ring | NY Post.

Diversification – the only ‘free lunch’ in investing

Diversification is often referred to as “the only free lunch in investing” because it affords investors the opportunity to reduce investment risk without reducing returns. Most investments involve a trade-off between risk and return, with higher returns requiring investors to expose themselves to greater risk. But effective diversification allows investors to reduce risk, by spreading their investments, while maintaining higher levels of return.

What is effective diversification?

Not all diversification is effective. Many investors buy a wide range of stocks in the belief that this will protect them from risk. The benefits of such diversification are likely to be insufficient if the stocks are all listed on the same exchange and selected using the same method. The entire portfolio will tend to rise and fall in unison — as in the well-known adage “a rising tide lifts all boats.” The key is to select stocks or investments that have low correlation.

What is correlation?

Correlation is the degree to which separate investments rise and fall together. Correlation measures the tendency of investments to advance or decline independently of each other. The correlation coefficient, identified by the symbol r, expresses the level of dependency between two variables (stocks in our case). Values for the correlation coefficient range from 1.0, for stocks that are perfectly correlated, to -1.0 for stocks that move inversely to each other.

Only two shares of the same stock, like BHP Billiton, are likely to have a correlation as high as 1.0. But stocks from the same sector are likely to share high values. And stocks from the same market are also likely to share a reasonable degree of correlation in larger time frames (i.e. the primary cycle).

You are also unlikely to find stocks that are the perfect inverse of each other — a coefficient of -1.0 — except possibly from an index ETF and its bear counterpart.

We are not necessarily looking for stocks with negative correlation, however, but stocks or investments with low correlation — closer to zero than to 1.0. As you can imagine, going long and short the same stock would protect you from any variation in prices, but would not deliver much in the way of return. If we had a spread of investments with low correlation (i.e low dependency) their price movements will tend to offset each other, providing a smoother portfolio return.

3 Ways to achieve diversification

We are likely to find investments with low correlation using three different techniques:

  • Diversification by asset class;
  • Diversification by geographic location; and
  • Diversification by strategy.

Asset class

There are a number of asset classes available to investors. Asset classes as diverse as stocks, real estate and fine art, however, are all subject the vagaries of the economic cycle and tend to rise and fall together.

Bonds tend to have low correlation to stocks. We need to make a distinction here between government bonds with low risk premiums, which fluctuate largely with the interest rate cycle and tend to be counter-cyclical (i.e negatively correlated) to stocks, and corporate bonds which are subject to far higher risk premiums that may expand and contract in line with the stock market cycle. Credit spreads tend to be low when the stock market is bullish and widen sharply during a contraction.

There are other asset classes such as insurance funds, where risks such as weather events tend to have low correlation to the economic cycle, but investors need a fair degree of expertise to assess the risks associated with these investments.

Geographic location

Australian investors tend to be highly concentrated in the Australian market, with only about 15% of assets invested offshore, both directly and indirectly through managed funds. Most major stock markets tend to rise and fall together, but diversification, especially to US markets, affords investors the opportunity to diversify into sectors not available on the local exchange.

By strategy

Diversification by strategy is often overlooked. If an investor, for example, diversifies their stock portfolio across several value-based fund managers they are likely to find that their investments rise and fall in unison. Even though the managers may hold a wide spread of stocks, they are all selected using a similar process and will tend to behave in a similar manner.

By spreading investments across several strategies, the investor is likely to achieve more effective diversification and more stable returns. Diversification between value-based strategies and our own momentum strategy is an obvious example. Recent research shows ASX 200 Prime Momentum has a low correlation of 0.3368 with the popular Perpetual Industrial Share Fund [PER0011AU] and moderate correlation of 0.4263 with Colonial First State Australian Share – Core [FSF0238AU].

Diversification is not the only “free lunch” available to investors — effective tax planning also enables investors to enhance returns without increasing risk — but it is important and should not be neglected. It is a complex area and we recommend that you consult your financial adviser before taking any action.

The best argument for mutual funds is that they offer safety and diversification.
But they don’t necessarily offer safety and diversification.

~ Ron Chernow

Consolidation expected

  • S&P 500 retreats below 1985.
  • VIX continues to indicate a bull market.
  • ASX 200 breaks resistance.

The S&P 500 retreated below its new support level at 1985, indicating a false break. Consolidation between 1950 and 1985 is likely — below the psychological barrier at 2000. Respect of support at 1950 would confirm. Declining 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal mild, medium-term selling pressure. Further resistance is likely at the 2000 level — and at 4000 on the Nasdaq 100. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 2250*.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1500 + ( 1500 – 750 ) = 2250

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) recovered to above 12. Low levels continue to indicate a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is consolidating above medium-term support at 3150. Breach would signal a test of the primary level at 3000. Descent of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of modest long-term selling pressure. Recovery above 3250 is less likely at present, but would suggest a target of 3450*.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3150 ) = 3450

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke resistance at 2100 and is headed for a test of 2150. Breakout would suggest a primary up-trend, but I would wait for confirmation at 2250. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 2050 is unlikely at present but would warn of another test of primary support at 1990/2000.

Shanghai Composite

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

The ASX 200 broke clear of resistance at 5540/5560 on strong results from BHP. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but Friday’s long tail and rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicate short-term buying pressure. Respect of support would indicate a long-term advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5540 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

Gold retreats as Dollar strengthens

  • Treasury yields weaken further
  • The Dollar continues to strengthen
  • Inflation target remains at 2% p.a.
  • Gold retreats

Interest Rates and the Dollar

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.50 percent, indicating a test of 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 2.40 would confirm. Recovery above 2.65 is unlikely, but would indicate the correction is over, with a medium-term target of 2.80 and long-term of 3.00 percent.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 2.50 – ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 2.00

The Dollar Index followed-through above 80.50 and is headed for another test of 81.00. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 81.00 would strengthen the signal; and 81.50 would confirm. Breach of 80.00 is unlikely at present, but would warn of another test of primary support at 79.00.

Dollar Index

Low interest rates and a stronger dollar suggest inflation expectations are falling, but this is not yet evident on the TIPS spread. The 5-year Breakeven rate (5-Year Treasury Yield minus 5-Year Inflation-Indexed Yield) remains at 2.0 percent.

5-Year Treasury Yield minus 5-Year Inflation Indexed (TIPS) Yield


Gold is nonetheless falling, in line with weaker inflation expectations. Breach of short-term support at $1295/$1300 would test $1240/$1250. And breach of $1240 would signal another primary decline, with an intermediate target of $1100*. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Momentum around zero, however, suggests hesitancy, with no strong trend. Recovery above $1350 is unlikely at present, but would indicate another test of $1400/$1420.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1250 – ( 1400 – 1250 ) = 1100

When we compare long-term crude prices (Brent Crude) to gold, it is evident that crude prices tend to lead and gold to follow. The main reason is the impact that higher crude prices have on inflation, increasing demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Crude prices currently remain high, but it remains to be seen whether gold will follow as usual.

Gold and Crude

Gold prices adjusted for inflation suggest the opposite. There are two enormous spikes on the chart, both flagging times of great financial uncertainty. The first is spiraling inflation of the early 1980s and the second is the all-in balance sheet expansion (also known as quantitative easing) by central banks after the global financial crisis. Gold prices remain elevated and are likely to fall further as central banks curtail expansion.

Gold and CPI

BHP fuels ASX 200 surge

A surge in production from miner BHP Billiton — shipping 223 million tonnes in FY 2014 against earlier projections of 207 million tonnes — helped the ASX 200 break through resistance at 5550/5560 today. Expect retracement to test support at 5550 and the rising trendline. Respect would confirm a medium-term target of 5700*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5400 ) = 5700

ASX 200 VIX below 10 continues to indicate a bull market.

ASX 200

The Australian Dollar responded to the influx of international buyers, breaking resistance at $0.94. Follow-through above $0.945 would confirm a rally to $0.97. RBA intervention has so far proved ineffectual, but reversal below $0.94 would warn of a test of $0.92.


DAX warns of correction

Germany’s DAX retreated below medium-term support at 9700, warning of a secondary correction. Follow-through below 9600 would confirm. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, below zero, indicates medium-term selling pressure. Breach of primary support at 8900/9000 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend. Recovery above 10000 is also unlikely at present, but would indicate an advance to 10500*. Respect of the long-term trendline at 9500 would indicate that momentum and the primary up-trend are intact.


* Target calculation: 9750 + ( 9750 – 9000 ) = 10500

Deutsche Post AG (y_DPW.DE) serves as a bellwether for European markets. Deutsche Post DHL couriers holds a similar position to that of Fedex in US markets. The stock formed a rounding top over the last year and is now testing primary support at 25.00. Breach of support would warn of a slow-down in economic activity.

Deutsche Post AG

The Footsie follows a similar path to the DAX in recent weeks. Reversal below 6700 would warn of a correction; follow-through below 6670 would confirm. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure, but respect of the zero line would suggest long-term buying support. Recovery above 6800 is unlikely at present, but would suggest a rally to 6880. Breach of primary support is even less likely, but would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200

Jon Cunliffe: The role of the leverage ratio….

Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability of the Bank of England, argues that the leverage ratio — which ignores risk weighting when calculating the ratio of bank assets to tier 1 capital — is a vital safeguard against banks’ inability to accurately model risk:

….. while the risk-weighted approach has been through wholesale reform, it still depends on mathematical models — and for the largest firms, their own models to determine riskiness. So the risk-weighted approach is itself subject to what in the trade is called “model risk”.

This may sound like some arcane technical curiosity. It is not. It is a fundamental weakness of the risk based approach.

Mathematical modelling is a hugely useful tool. Models are probably the best way we have of forecasting what will happen. But in the end, a model — as the Bank of England economic forecasters will tell you with a wry smile — is only a crude and simplified representation of the real world. Models have to be built and calibrated on past experience.

When events occur that have no clear historical precedent — such as large falls in house prices across US states — models based on past data will struggle to accurately predict what may follow.

In the early days of the crisis, an investment bank CFO is reported to have said, following hitherto unprecedented moves in market prices: “We were seeing things that were 25 standard deviation moves, several days in a row”.

Well, a 25 standard deviation event would not be expected to occur more than once in the history of the universe let alone several days in a row — the lesson was that the models that the bank was using were simply wrong.

And even if it is possible to model credit risk for, say, a bank’s mortgage book, it is much more difficult to model the complex and often obscure relationships between parts of the financial sector — the interconnectedness — that give rise to risk in periods of stress.

Moreover, allowing banks to use their own models to calculate the riskiness of their portfolio for regulatory capital requirements opens the door to the risk of gaming. Deliberately or otherwise, banks opt for less conservative modelling assumptions that lead to less onerous capital requirements. Though the supervisory model review process provides some protection against this risk, in practice, it can be difficult to keep track of what can amount to, for a large international bank, thousands of internal risk models.

The underlying principle of the Basel 3 risk-weighted capital standards — that a bank’s capital should take account of the riskiness of its assets — remains valid. But it is not enough. Concerns about the vulnerability of risk-weights to “model risk” call for an alternative, simpler lens for measuring bank capital adequacy — one that is not reliant on large numbers of models.

This is the rationale behind the so-called “leverage ratio” – a simple unweighted ratio of bank’s equity to a measure of their total un-risk-weighted exposures.

By itself, of course, such a measure would mean banks’ capital was insensitive to risk. For any given level of capital, it would encourage banks to load up on risky assets. But alongside the risk-based approach, as an alternative way of measuring capital adequacy, it guards against model risk. This in turn makes the overall capital adequacy framework more robust.

The leverage ratio is often described as a “backstop” to the “frontstop” of the more complex risk-weighted approach. I have to say that I think this is an unhelpful description. The leverage ratio is not a “safety net” that one hopes or assumes will never be used.

Rather, bank capital adequacy is subject to different types of risks. It needs to be seen through a variety of lenses. Measuring bank capital in relation to the riskiness of assets guards against banks not taking sufficient account of asset risk. Using a leverage ratio guards against the inescapable weaknesses in banks’ ability to model risk.

Read more at Jon Cunliffe: The role of the leverage ratio and the need to monitor risks outside the regulated banking sector – r140721a.pdf.

ASX 200 suggests breakout

The ASX 200 again tested resistance at 5550/5560 this morning, as shown on the hourly chart below. The index retreated, but not far, and another attempt is likely provided international markets behave overnight. Breakout above 5560 would suggest a long-term advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5520 is unlikely, but a fall below 5500 would warn of a test of 5375.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

Sleeping tigers: Hang Seng and Straits Times threaten breakout

A monthly chart shows Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index headed for a test of long-term resistance at 24000. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero indicates long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 24000 would signal a primary advance with a medium-term target of 27000*. Reversal below 21000 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Long-term target calculation: 24000 + ( 24000 – 21000 ) = 27000

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3300. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 3300 would signal a primary advance to 3600*. Respect of resistance is less likely, but reversal below 3200 would warn of another test of primary support at 3000.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 3600

China’s Shanghai Composite Index remains on an upward path after the PBOC lifted bank credit. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Follow-through above 2090/2100 would suggest another test of 2150. Failure of primary support at 1990/2000 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a decline to 1850*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

India’s Sensex respected support at 25000. Follow-through above 25700 would signal another test of resistance at 26000/26200. Breakout would offer a target of 27000*. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow around zero warns of hesitancy. Reversal below 25000 is less likely, but would warn of a correction to the primary trendline, around 23000.


* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 15000 ) = 27000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is finding support at 15000/15200. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow shows medium-term selling pressure typical of a consolidation; respect of zero would suggest another advance. Recovery above 15500 would confirm, offering a target of the December 2013 high at 16300. Reversal below 15000, however, would warn of another test of primary support at 14000.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 14000 ) = 16000

To sell or not to sell?

Recent acquisition Northern Star Resources [NST] in the ASX 200 portfolio is a great example of the conundrum faced by long-term investors when a new stock leaps out of the starting blocks. Profit-taking is evident from the tall shadows/wicks early in the week and in the decline of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Medium-term selling pressure suggests the stock is likely to retrace and give back some of the gains of the last two weeks. The temptation must be great to sell the stock and lock in profits of close to 30 percent.


It is important, however, to stick to the plan. We are investing for a longer time frame in anticipation of much larger gains. There is no guarantee that any individual stock, including NST, will deliver. But I can guarantee you that they will not deliver long-term gains if you sell within the first few weeks.

Investors in S&P 500 stock Micron Technology [MU] faced a similar conundrum in July 2013. The stock had put in a good run from $9.00 before encountering profit-taking as it approached $15.00. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow retreated below zero and the stock fell back to $12.50. Many investors would have taken this as a sign to get out.

MU July 2013

With hindsight, the decision to stay the course looks easy: support held at $12.50 and MU is now trading at $33.00. But I am sure that there were many investors who forgot their original plan and took profits at $12.50.

MU 2013/2014

….They just aren’t bragging about it.

S&P 500 pregnant pause

  • S&P 500 advance to 2000 likely.
  • VIX continues to indicate a bull market.
  • ASX 200 finds support.

A Harami candlestick formation on the S&P 500 suggests continuation of the up-trend. Harami means ‘pregnant’ in Japanese. Expect a test of the psychological barrier at 2000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow recovery above the descending trendline would confirm that short-term selling pressure has ended. Further resistance is likely at the 2000 level — and at 4000 on the Nasdaq 100. Short retracement or narrow consolidation would suggest another advance. Reversal below 1950 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 1900 and the rising trendline.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1800 ) = 2000

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 15 on news of the Israeli incursion into Gaza and the downing of Malaysian airlines flight MH17 over Eastern Ukraine, but soon retreated to 12 and remains indicative of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

The ASX 200 retreated below support at 5525/5530 on the hourly chart, but long tails at 5500 indicate buying pressure and another attempt at 5550 is likely. An open above 5530 would confirm. Breakout above 5550 would suggest a long-term advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5450 is unlikely, but would signal another test of 5350.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

Flight MH17: The smoking gun

The following tweet and video purportedly show a BUK surface-to-air missile system being moved by UKR rebels from the area near the MH17 crash site — with two empty missile tubes.

Hat tip to The Interpreter