Next major target for the Dow and S&P 500

The next major target for the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 28000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Target 14000 x 2 = 28000

And 3000* for the S&P 500.

S&P 500

Target 1500 x 2 = 3000

Reasoning: The Dow top of 14000 in 2007 was double its 2002 low of 7000 and roughly double its 2009 low of 6500, allowing for some GFC overshoot. The S&P high was similarly close to 1500 in 2007, compared to its 2002 low of 768 and a 2009 low of 666. Double the 2007 high of 14000 would give a target of 28000 and double 1500 for the S&P 500 gives a target of 3000.

East to West: Global correction

There are clear signs that global stock markets are headed for a correction.

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index followed a false break above its November high of 2560 with a sharp reversal. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure.

Seoul Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index remains bullish but shows strong resistance at 24000.

Nikkei 225 Index

A large engulfing candle on China’s Shanghai Composite Index warns of a correction. Breach of support at 3400 would test the primary level at 3250.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s NSE Nifty Index also displays an engulfing candle at resistance of 11000*, warning of a correction. Trend Index troughs above zero, however, continue to signal long-term buying pressure.

Nifty Index

Target 10500 + ( 10500 – 10000 ) = 11000

In Europe, the DJ Euro Stoxx 600 penetrated its rising trendline at 390, warning of a loss of momentum. Strong bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of a primary down-trend. Reversal below 380 would strengthen the signal.

DJ Euro Stoxx 600

The Footsie retreated below its new support level at 7600. Reversal below 7300 would signal a primary down-trend.

FTSE 100

In the US, the daily chart for the S&P 500 reveals market skittishness about higher inflation and interest rates.

S&P 500

While Canada’s TSX 60 ended its 4-month rally with an emphatic red candle breaking support at 940. Expect a test of the primary level at 880.

TSX 60

This looks like a global correction but it would be premature to call this a market top.

Black Monday, October 1987

What caused the Black Monday crash of 1987? Analysts are often unable to identify a single trigger or smoking gun that caused the crash.

Sniper points to a sharp run-up in short-term interest rates in the 3 months prior to the crash.

3 Month Treasury Bill Rates

Valuations were also at extreme readings, with PEmax (price-earnings based on the highest earnings to-date) near 20, close to its Black Friday high from the crash of 1929.

S&P 500 PEmax 1919 - 1989

Often overlooked is the fact that the S&P 500 was testing resistance at its previous highs between 700 and 750 from the 1960s and 70s (chart from macrotrends).

S&P 500 1960 - 1990

A combination of these three factors may have been sufficient to tip the market into a dramatic reversal.

Are we facing a similar threat today?

Short-term rates are rising but at 40 basis points over the last 4 months, compared to 170 bp in 1987, there is not much cause for concern.

13-week T-Bill rates

PEmax, however, is now at a precipitous 26.8, second only to the Dotcom bubble of 1999/2000.

S&P 500 PEmax 1980 - 2017

While the index is in blue sky territory, with no resistance in sight, there is an important psychological barrier ahead at 3000.

S&P 500

Conclusion: This does not look like a repetition of 1987. But investors who ignore the extreme valuation warning may be surprised at how fast the market can reverse (as in 1987) from such extremes.

East to West: Global stocks rally

In Asia, South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index found support at 2450 but be careful of a bearish divergence forming on Twiggs Trend Index. Reversal below zero would warn of a test of primary support at 2300.

Seoul Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index remains bullish. Trend Index troughs high above zero indicate strong buying pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index found support at 3250. Breakout above 3450 would signal a primary advance.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s NSE Nifty Index broke resistance at 10500, signaling a fresh advance. Trend Index troughs above zero signal buying pressure. The immediate target is 11000*.

Nifty Index

Target 10500 + ( 10500 – 10000 ) = 11000

In Europe, the Footsie is advancing strongly after breaking through resistance at its June high of 7600. Trend Index is still declining but recovery above the declining trendline indicates buyers are taking control.

FTSE 100

Europe, represented by the DJ Euro Stoxx 600, remains weak. A declining Trend Index warns of selling pressure despite breakout above resistance at 396.

DJ Euro Stoxx 600

Moving to the US, the S&P 500 chart says it all. Investors continue to shrug off concerns about high valuations. The rising Trend Index, high above zero, indicates strong buying pressure. We need a correction fairly soon to prevent an accelerating up-trend leading to a blow-off.

S&P 500

Commodities are also advancing, led by stronger crude oil prices.

Nymex Light Crude

It’s about time that the Fed and other central banks took the punch bowl away, before the party really gets out of hand.

East to West: Footsie surprise

The Footsie is testing resistance at its June high of 7600. Trend Index is still declining but recovery above 0.2% would indicate buyers are taking control.

FTSE 100

Europe is weaker, with tall shadows on weekly Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 600 candles and a declining Trend Index warning of selling pressure.

DJ Euro Stoxx 50

In Asia, South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index broke support at 2450, confirming the bearish divergence on Twiggs Trend Index. Expect a correction to test primary support at 2300.

Seoul Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index remains bullish, consolidating in a narrow band below resistance at 23000. Trend Index troughs high above zero indicate strong buying pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index found short-term support at 3250. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s NSE Nifty Index is testing resistance at 10500 after a mild correction to 10,000. Twiggs Trend Index respecting zero signals strong buying pressure. Breakout above 10500 is likely and would indicate another primary advance with an immediate target of 11000*.

Nifty Index

Target 10500 + ( 10500 – 10000 ) = 11000

Moving to the US, the S&P 500 continues to shrug off concerns over high valuations and a flattening yield curve. The rising Trend Index, high above zero, indicates long-term buying pressure.

S&P 500

Bellwether transport stock Fedex has advanced to 250, signaling strong economic activity, a bullish sign for the entire economy.

Nasdaq 100

East to West: Asia, Europe weaken but US powers on

Starting with Asia, South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index continues to test support at 2450. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure but this appears secondary in nature. Breach of the rising trendline would warn that the primary up-trend is losing momentum.

Seoul Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is consolidating between 22000 and 23000. A Trend Index trough high above zero indicates strong buying pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is undergoing a correction that should find support at 3200. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index, and a cross below zero for the first time since May 2016, warn of continued selling pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s NSE Nifty Index continues to test support at 10000 after a weak correction. Twiggs Trend Index respecting zero signals strong buying pressure. Recovery above 10500 is likely and would indicate another primary advance.

Nifty Index

Target 10500 + ( 10500 – 10000 ) = 11000

Europe is weaker despite strong manufacturing signals. Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 found support at 3520 but the Trend Index is declining, warning of selling pressure. Breach of 3520 is likely and would warn of a test of primary support at 3400.

DJ Euro Stoxx 50

The Footsie remains volatile, with the index headed for another test of stubborn resistance at 7600. But Trend Index is declining and continues to warn of selling pressure.
FTSE 100

Moving to the US, the S&P 500 continues to shrug off concerns regarding high valuations and a flattening yield curve. The rising Trend Index, high above zero, indicates long-term buying pressure.

S&P 500

The Nasdaq 100 also continues a strong bull market, with the big five tech stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook) all recording solid gains.

Nasdaq 100

East to West: Europe steadies, S&P powers on

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 600 found support at 380 and is now headed for a test of recent highs at 395. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index continues to warn of selling pressure but recovery above the declining trendline (on the Trend Index) would indicate that pressure has eased. Breakout above 395 would signal another primary advance, with a target of 425*.

DJ Euro Stoxx 600

Target 395 + ( 395 – 365 ) = 425

Conclusion of phase I of Brexit negotiations helped the Footsie find support at 7300. Trend Index continues to warn of selling pressure. Breach of 7200 is unlikely at present but would signal a primary down-trend. Breakout above 7600 would signal a primary advance, but is also unlikely. Expect further consolidation.

FTSE 100

In Asia, South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is undergoing a correction but seems to have found support at 2450. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm the primary up-trend.

Seoul Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index found solid support at 22000, with long tails signaling buyer enthusiasm. The trend index trough high above zero indicates strong buying pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is undergoing a correction. A long tail suggests support at 3250. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure but this appears to be secondary in nature.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s NSE Nifty Index found support at 10000 after a weak correction. Recovery above 10500 is likely and would warn of another primary advance.

Nifty Index

Target 10500 + ( 10500 – 10000 ) = 11000

In the US, the S&P 500 continues to shrug off concerns regarding high valuations and a flattening yield curve. The rising Trend Index indicates buying pressure.

S&P 500

The Nasdaq 100 continues its strong bull market, powered by the big five tech stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook). Corrections are mild and of short duration, typical of the latter stages of a bull market.

Nasdaq 100

East to West: European tremors

Complacency in Europe has been shaken, with Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 600 testing medium-term support at 380. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index, with intervening troughs below zero, warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of 380 is likely and would indicate a test of primary support at 366.

DJ Euro Stoxx 600

The UK’s Footsie broke medium-term support at 7350 and is headed for a test of primary support at 7200. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index again warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of 7200 would signal reversal to a primary down-trend.

FTSE 100

Asia was also affected, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index the only major index to end the week on a positive note, after finding solid support at 22000.

Nikkei 225 Index

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index below 2500 warns of a correction, though nothing more.

Seoul Composite Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke support at 3340 to warn of a correction. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure but this appears to be secondary in nature.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s NSE Nifty Index is still bullish but reversal below 10000 would warn of a strong correction.

Nifty Index

Target 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

The S&P 500 is as bear-proof as you can get in the current climate, with the trend index reflecting strong buying pressure.

S&P 500

A bear market in Europe may not be sufficient to dent the animal spirits driving US markets but would certainly influence more cautious investors to change to a risk-off stance and shorten the time left for more adventurous souls.

S&P 500 reaches 2600

The S&P 500 reached its medium-term target of 2600. This is stage 3 of a bull market; a short correction or consolidation followed by further gains is likely.

S&P 500

A sharp correction during stage 3 often warns of an impending top but is unlikely at this stage.

Bellwether transport stock Fedex found short-term support after a 3-week correction. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow so far suggests secondary selling pressure and not an alteration in the primary trend. Recovery above 220 would respect the rising trendline, indicating a healthy up-trend — a bullish sign for the broader economy.

Fedex

Elliot Clarke at Westpac raises concerns over low investment growth:

…the FOMC clearly sought to cement market expectations of a rate hike in December in their October/November meeting minutes. The economy was seen as continuing to enjoy above-trend growth thanks to robust gains for household consumption. Built on income gains as well as strong confidence, this trend is expected to persist. Inevitably though, an economy cannot be built on consumption alone. Investment is necessary, and this is an area of the growth outlook where we harbor doubts. Should, as we expect, investment growth remain tepid, then productivity and income growth will be held back. This is a key reason why we believe that this rate hike cycle is likely to top out around 1.875%, after the December decision and two further hikes in 2018.

I think he is right that the Fed will remain cautious about raising interest rates until investment growth strengthens. Low inflation is partly caused by low investment, but this is likely to fade as new job creation strengthens.

East to West: Still mostly bullish apart from EU & China

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index continues in a strong up-trend despite the nuclear threat from its northern neighbor. The latest retracement appears mild and likely to test the rising trendline around 2450.

Seoul Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index also retraced but the long tail on this week’s candle indicates solid support at 22000.

Nikkei 225 Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng continues in a strong bull trend, with the Trend Index respecting the zero line.

Shanghai Composite Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is consolidating above support at 3340. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure but this appears to be secondary in nature, warning of no more than a correction.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s NSE Nifty Index is also in a bull trend, with the Trend Index respecting zero. Respect of the rising trendline is likely and would signal a fresh advance.

Nifty Index

Target 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

Moving to Europe, Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 600 shows a stronger correction, with bearish divergence on the Trend Index warning of selling pressure.

DJ Euro Stoxx 600

The UK’s Footsie displays a stronger bearish divergence and the index is likely to test primary support at 7200.

FTSE 100

The S&P 500 displays a strong bull trend but penetration of the rising trendline is likely to lead to a correction to 2500.

S&P 500

East to West: S&P 500 leads the bulls

Let us start in the East, with the canary in the coal mine. The Seoul Composite Index completely ignored the nuclear threat from its northern neighbor, surging in a strong primary up-trend.

Seoul Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index likewise ignored the threat of a nuclear DPRK, advancing strongly since breaking resistance at 21000.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is also advancing, albeit at a more modest pace.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s NSE Nifty Index displays strong buying pressure, with Twiggs Trend Index oscillating above the zero line.

Nifty Index

Target 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

Moving to Europe, Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 600 broke resistance at 395 and is likely to test its 2015 high.

DJ Euro Stoxx 600

Despite BREXIT fears, the UK’s Footsie has recovered to test resistance at 7600. Breakout would offer a target of 8000*.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 7600 + ( 7600 – 7200 ) = 8000

The S&P 500 leads the pack. With Trend Index troughs above zero and barely a correction in sight, the index displays exceptional buying pressure. At some point the Fed will take the punch bowl away but the party is likely to continue in full swing until then.

S&P 500

GDP slow growth as stocks power on

GDP growth for the third quarter is out and I can see little to indicate that growth is improving despite tweets to the contrary from the White House.

Nominal GDP is growing at just over 4 percent per year, continuing the narrow band established since late 2010. Growth closely follows our monthly estimate: total weekly hours worked multiplied by the average wage rate.

Nominal GDP

Real GDP, beset by problems in accurately measuring inflation, grew by 2.3 percent over the last 4 quarters. But growth remains relatively soft and our latest monthly estimate (growth in total weekly hours worked) slowed to 1.2 percent in September.

Real GDP

The S&P 500 powers on, climbing to a new high of 2581, while rising Twiggs Money Flow signals buying pressure.

S&P 500

Retracement of the Nasdaq 100 successfully tested its new support level at 6000, confirming a fresh advance.

Nasdaq 100

Bellwether transport stock Fedex is advancing strongly while a Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero suggests strong buying pressure. A bullish sign for broad economic activity.

Fedex

Stage 3 of the bull market continues.

It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting…Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn.

~ Jesse Livermore

S&P 500 makes new high

The S&P 500 made a new high on Friday, while Twiggs Money Flow rose above its descending trendline, signaling that selling pressure has eased. Expect retracement to test the new support level but respect is likely and would confirm a target of 2600* for the advance.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2500 + ( 2500 – 2400 ) = 2600

The Nasdaq 100 has been dragging its feet a bit, still testing resistance at 6000. But Technology stocks are likely to follow the main index, with breakout above 6000 signaling a fresh advance.

Nasdaq 100

Tech giants Amazon and Apple are partly responsible for Nasdaq tardiness, with Amazon retreating from its watershed breakout above $1000. Further decline would be cause for concern — when leading stocks no longer lead — but recovery above $1000 is more likely and would be a bullish sign for the broader market.

Amazon

Fedex bullish but Nasdaq displays selling pressure

Bellwether transport stock Fedex is testing resistance at 220. A higher trough on Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 220 is likely and would signal a primary advance. This is a bullish sign for broad economic activity.

Nasdaq 100

The S&P 500 is retracing to test its new support level at 2480/2500. Declining Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Respect of support would confirm a fresh advance, offering an immediate target of 2600. But breach of support is as likely and would warn of a correction to test the rising trendline around 2420.

S&P 500

The Nasdaq 100 also displays medium-term selling pressure, but with a steeper fall on Twiggs Money Flow. Having failed to break resistance at 6000, a correction is likely, with a target of 5750.

Nasdaq 100

S&P 500 and Nasdaq test resistance

The bull market continues, with the S&P 500 testing resistance at 2500. Twiggs Trend Index troughs above zero signal buying pressure. Breakout would signal a fresh advance, offering an immediate target of 2600.

S&P 500

The Nasdaq 100 is similarly testing resistance at 6000. Immediate target for a breakout would be 6200.

Nasdaq 100

Hardly an over-heated market

Discussions as to whether the stock market is over-priced normally imply that stocks are about to fall if valuations are too high. But history shows that this isn’t true. The euphoria of bull markets often outruns earnings multiples and only reverses when there is an unexpected fall in earnings.

Earnings multiples (the price-earnings ratio) may rise for two reasons:

  1. Stock prices are rising faster than earnings; or
  2. Earnings are falling and stock prices are declining at a slower rate.

S&P 500 Historic PE

The S&P 500 historic price-earnings ratio (based on the last 4 quarters earnings) spiked above 20 several times in the last three decades:

  • 1991 was caused by falling earnings;
  • 1997 by rising stock prices;
  • sharp falls in earnings were responsible for 2001 and 2008; and
  • declining earnings, particularly in the Energy sector, explain the bump in 2015.

The problem with historic PE is that it looks backward, at the last 4 quarters, rather than forward. If we take the Forward PE, based on the next 4 quarters earnings estimates, we can see that earnings are recovering.

S&P 500 Forward PE

Forward PE dipped below 20 in 2016, indicating that expected earnings are advancing faster than prices.

This does not signal a buy opportunity, which normally presents when Forward PE is close to 15:

  • 1988-1989
  • 1993-1994
  • 2002-2005
  • 2009-2012

S&P 500 and Forward PE

Nor does it represent a sell signal.

Most corporations (98.5%) have reported earnings for June 2017. Estimates are included for the remainder, giving total earnings of $27.00 per share.

S&P project that earnings will grow a further 20% over the next four quarters (Jun-18: $32.40). This may be optimistic but provided earnings grow faster than the index we will see earnings multiples decline.

S&P 500 Forward Earnings Estimates

Hardly an over-heated market.

What does falling job growth indicate?

Job growth fell to 156,000 for August, from a high of 210,000 in June, according to the latest BLS stats.

Job growth

Unemployment ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4% for August.

Unemployment

What does this mean? Very little, if we look at our real GDP forecast based on total nonfarm payroll multiplied by average weekly hours worked. GDP growth is slow but steady.

S&P 500 with Twiggs Volatility

The recently published Philadelphia Fed Leading Index for July has slowed but remains comfortably above the early warning level of 1. The index normally falls below 0.5 in the months ahead of a recession.

Philadelphia Fed Leading Index

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 2480 after a weak correction that respected support at 2400. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure but this seems secondary in nature. Breakout above 2480 is likely and would offer a target of 2540*.

S&P 500

Target 2480 + ( 2480 – 2420 ) = 2540

The Nasdaq 100 is testing resistance at its all-time high of 6000. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow again warns of secondary selling pressure. Breakout would offer a short-term target of 6250 and a long-term target of 7000.

Nasdaq 100

Target 6000 + ( 6000 – 5750 ) = 6250

The bull market remains on track for further gains.

S&P 500 Bull Market Continues

The S&P 500 continues with a secondary correction that is likely to test the long-term rising trendline and support at 2400. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure but this seems secondary in nature.

S&P 500

Target 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

Twiggs Volatility (21-day), at 0.63% for the S&P 500, is way below the 1.5% warning level for elevated market risk.

S&P 500 with Twiggs Volatility

The yield curve is flattening, with the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury Yield Differential close to 1.0%. But this is still well above the 0.5% early-warning level. A negative yield curve, where the Yield Differential falls below zero, is normally followed by a recession within 6 to 12 months.

Yield Differential

Fed monetary policy remains accommodative, with currency in circulation expanding at a healthy annual rate of 6.9%.

Currency in Circulation

The bull market remains on track for further gains.