Asia rallies while ASX smoulders

India’s Sensex found support at 20200 before rallying to test resistance at 21200. Breakout above its 2007 and 2010 highs at 21000 would confirm the primary advance, offering a target of 24000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 20200 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke through resistance at 15000, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect of 15000 is unlikely, but would confirm the primary up-trend, with a long-term target of 17500*. Reversal below the rising trendline would test primary support at 13200, warning of trend weakness.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

Singapore’s Straits Times Index respected support at 3000 on the monthly chart, but is struggling to make an impression on long-term resistance at 3300. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of a primary down-trend. Breakout above 3300 is unlikely at present, but would signal a primary advance to 3600*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 3600

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at its upper trend channel. Follow-through above 2200 would indicate the correction is over and a test of 2270 is likely. A down-swing to test the lower channel is just as likely, however, and would indicate continuation of the correction. Completion of a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero (say > 15%) would signal medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 2270 may be some way off but would signal a primary up-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng broke resistance at 23500, signaling a primary up-trend. Follow-through above 24000 would confirm, offering a medium-term target of 24500 and a long-term target of 28000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 23500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 22500 or the primary trendline.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 24000 + ( 24000 – 20000 ) = 28000

The ASX 200 is testing medium-term support at 5300. Penetration of the rising trendline, would warn of a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests selling pressure.

ASX 200

The monthly chart shows a correction would be likely to test the secondary rising trendline around 5000. Recovery above 5400 is unlikely at present, but would signal an advance to 5600*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5300 ) = 5600

Asia: Singapore breakout, ASX 200 selling pressure

Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke long-term resistance at 3300, signaling an advance to the 2007 high of 3900*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum strengthen the signal.
DJ Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900

India’s Sensex followed through above resistance at 19000. Breach of the descending trendline would indicate a primary advance to 22000*. 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, signals selling pressure and reversal below 19000 would warn of another test of primary support at 18000.
BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

China’s Shanghai Composite is again testing medium-term support at 2150. Failure of support would warn of a decline to test primary support at 1950/2000. Reversal above 2250, however, would penetrate the descending trendline, indicating another test of 2500.
Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 continues to climb, with a steeply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 15000*.
Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 11500 + ( 11500 – 8000 ) = 15000

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5150. Breakout would offer a target of 5400*, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Failure of support at 4900 would signal a reversal.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 4900 ) = 5400

Asia: India strengthens

India’s Sensex broke through 19000 to confirm an advance to 20000*. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates long-term buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3100. Breakout would indicate a test of the upper trend channel at 3260*. Respect would test the lower channel at 2900. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a primary advance.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3100 + ( 3100 – 2940 ) = 3260

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is retracing to test the new support level at 9200/9300. Respect would confirm an advance to 10200*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend; look for a trough above zero to confirm.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

Asia: India and Japan strengthen

India’s Sensex rallied off support at 18300. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure. That and the mild correction suggest a strong primary up-trend. Breakout above 19000 would signal an advance to 20000*.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index found support at 2930. Breakout above 3100 would indicate a test of the upper trend channel, while reversal below support would test the lower channel. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would suggest an advance; below zero would reflect a ranging market.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke resistance at 9200/9300, signaling an advance to 10200*. Expect retracement to first test the new support level. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow — above zero — indicates medium-term buying pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is ranging between 1760 and 2060. Expect another test of 2000. Breakout would indicate a primary up-trend, while respect would mean another test of support at 1860. Narrow oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero is typical of a ranging market.

Seoul Composite Index

Asia: India & China weaken

India’s Sensex broke support at 18500, warning of another correction. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure; so the correction is likely to be mild. Respect of 18000 would suggest a strong primary up-trend, with an initial target of 20000*.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke support at 3000, warning of a correction. Expect support at the lower trend channel. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero would reflect a ranging market.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2000. Breakout would offer a target of 1850*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Recovery above 2150 is unlikely but would complete a double bottom reversal.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

The Hang Seng Index is undergoing a correction. Breach of 21000 would indicate a test of 20000 and the rising trendline. Falling 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure but the long-term picture remains bullish with, most likely, another trough above zero. Breakout above 22000 is unlikely at present but would signal an advance to 24000*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 20 ) = 24

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rallied to test resistance at 9200/9300. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 9300 would test 10200. Respect of resistance is unlikely but would suggest another test of primary support at 8200.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index found support at 1860; recovery above 1900 would suggest another test of 2000. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate long-term buying pressure. Recovery above 2000 would signal another primary advance.

Seoul Composite Index

Asia: India strong, China & Japan weaken

India’s Sensex continues to hold above 18500, suggesting a healthy up-trend. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Breakout above 19000 would signal an advance to 21000*.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index continues to test support at 3000. Breach of 2950 would test the lower trend channel, while breakout above 3100 would indicate an advance to 3300*. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero would reflect a ranging market.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for another test of medium-term support at 8450 after latest economic numbers warn of a contraction. Failure would test primary support at 8200. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow largely below zero indicates selling pressure. Breach of 8200 would signal a decline to 7200*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 7200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is testing medium-term support at 1880 but rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reflects buying pressure. Recovery above 1960 would test this year’s high at 2060.

Seoul Composite Index

China’s Dow Jones Shanghai Index is testing primary support at 250. Breakout would offer a target of 225*. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero reflects a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 250 – ( 275 – 250 ) = 225

Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates strong buying pressure on the Hang Seng Index. Breakout above 22000 would signal an advance to 24000*. A test of the rising trendline is still a possibility, but a correction that respects support at 20000 would still reflect a healthy up-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 20 ) = 24

Asia: China, India and Japan

The Shanghai Composite Index is consolidating between 2000 and 2150. Descending 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 2150 is likely and breakout below 2000 would signal a decline to 1800*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Shenzhen Composite Index is testing primary support at 800. Again, descending 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term selling pressure. Resistance at 900 is likely to be respected, while breakout below primary support would offer a target of 600*.

Shenzhen Composite Index

* Target calculation: 800 – (1000 – 800 ) = 600

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing support at 8650/8700. Respect would indicate a rally to 9200, while failure would complete a double top reversal, signaling a test of primary support at 8200. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure but the long-term picture remains negative. Breach of 8200 would signal a primary down-trend with an initial target of 7200*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 7200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is consolidating between 1950 and 2000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 2000 is likely, followed by a test of the year’s high at 2050.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1900 ) = 2200

India’s Sensex is retracing to test the new support level at 18500. Respect would signal a strong up-trend, but even retracement to 18000 would not be cause for concern. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Follow-through above 19000 would signal an advance to 21000*.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index retreated from resistance at 3100. Expect another test of support at 3000; confirmed if short-term support at 3050 is breached. Recovery above 3100 would confirm an advance to 3300 — as would a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Asia: India strong, China and Japan weak

India’s Sensex is holding above 18500, confirming the primary up-trend. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Follow-through above 19000 would signal an advance to 21000*.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3100. Narrow consolidation indicates buying pressure and breakout above 3100 would signal an advance to 3300*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a strong primary up-trend.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for a test of support at 8650. Failure would complete a double top reversal, signaling a test of primary support at 8200. Respect of zero (from below) by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Breach of 8200 would signal a primary down-trend with an initial target of 7200*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 7200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is consolidating below 2000 on the daily chart. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, high above zero, indicates medium-term buying pressure. Expect a test of this year’s high at 2050. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 2350*.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1750 ) = 2350

Chinese exchanges are closed the entire week for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. The Shanghai Composite Index is headed for a re-test of 2150. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow around zero indicates hesitancy. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal a decline to 1800*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is closed Monday/Tuesday but will re-open Wednesday. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates strong buying pressure. Expect retracement to test 20000 but respect is likely and would signal an advance to 22000.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 19 ) = 21

Asia: India strong but China, Japan weaken

China’s Shanghai Composite Index followed through below recent support at 2050. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, below zero, indicates selling pressure. Target for the decline is 1800*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is headed for a test of 2050. The 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 2050 would confirm.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1750 ) = 2350

India’s Sensex broke through 18500, confirming the primary up-trend. The trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Expect retracement to test the new support level.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing medium-term resistance at 3100. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum, above zero, indicates a primary up-trend.  Breakout above 3100 would indicate an advance to 3300*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Japan’s Nikkei 225 retreated below the new support level at 9200. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of a bull trap. Follow-through below 9000 would confirm.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

Asia Update

Dow Jones China index is retracing to test primary support at 245. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, continues to indicate a primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of 200*.

Dow Jones China Broad Index

* Target calculation: 250 – ( 300 – 250 ) = 200

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng penetrated the descending trendline at 22000, indicating an advance to 22000. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 22000 would confirm.

Hang Seng Index

India’s Sensex broke through 18500, confirming the primary up-trend. The trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Expect retracement to test the new support level.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index respected support at 3000. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum, above zero, indicates a primary up-trend.  Follow-through above 3100 would indicate an advance to 3300*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing resistance at 9200. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 10200. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates rising buying pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

Asia: Markets bouyed by stimulus measures

 

Markets jumped Friday on announcement by the ECB of government bond purchases and China unveiling further stimulus measures. The Shanghai Composite is testing  the first line of resistance at 2150. Respect of 2250 would warn of another down-swing, while penetration of the (secondary) descending trendline would indicate the primary down-trend is weakening. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum, a long way below zero, continues to reflect a primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is again testing resistance at 20000. Upward breakout plus 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero would indicate an advance to 22000. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would test primary support at 18000.

Hang Seng Index

India’s Sensex recovered above 17500, indicating an advance to 18500. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

Singapore’s Straits Times Index found support at 3000. Respect would indicate a test of the upper trend channel, but the lower peak on 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a ranging market. Breach of support at 3000 would re-test the lower trend channel.Singapore Straits Times Index

The long tail on last week’s Nikkei 225 candle indicates short-term buying pressure and recovery above 9200 would signal an advance to 10200. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, continues to indicate long-term selling pressure. Recovery above zero would reverse the signal, while failure of primary support at 8200 would confirm another down-swing.

Nikkei 225 Index

Asia: China & Japan bearish, India hesitant

China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to a nine-month low in August, below 50 at 49.2; steel prices are at their lowest level since 2009 and rail cargo volumes have experienced their sharpest fall since 2008. In the circumstances, stocks have held up surprisingly well, with a gradual rather than vertical descent. The Shenzhen Composite index is headed for a test of support at 800 and declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a primary down-trend, but the index is still a long way above its 2008 low of 450.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 800 – ( 1000 – 800 ) = 600

The Shanghai Composite is a lot closer to its 2008 low of 1660. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure and follow-through below 2100 offers a target of 1800*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is drifting sideways, approaching the apex of its large triangle, but failure of 63-day Twiggs Momentum to cross above zero warns of downside risk. Breach of primary support at 18000 would signal a decline to 16000*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 18 – ( 20 – 18 ) = 16

India’s Sensex retreated below its new support level at 17500, warning of a false break. Penetration of the rising trendline would suggest a bull trap, while respect would test 18500*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would indicate selling pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

The NSE Nifty Index also retreated below its new support level and 63-day Twiggs Momentum is above zero. Respect of the rising trendline would indicate a test of 5600, while penetration would warn of a bull trap.

Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is retracing to test support at 3000. The up-trend appears weak and failure of support would signal a test of the lower trend channel. It is unclear whether 63-day Twiggs Momentum will oscillate around zero, indicating a ranging market, or above zero, indicating a healthy up-trend. The next trough should clarify this: respect of zero indicating a primary up-trend.

Singapore Straits Times Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index retreated below 9000, indicating a false breakout. Matching peaks below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum and 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow warn of a strong down-trend. Failure of primary support at 8200 would confirm.

Nikkei 225 Index

South Korea’s Seoul Composite index retraced to test support after breakout above 1900. Declining peaks on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow depict rising selling pressure. Failure of support at 1900 would suggest another test of primary support at 1750.

Seoul Composite Index

Asia: India rises but China, Japan bearish

India’s Sensex is retracing to test its new support level at 17500. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend and signal an advance to 18500*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum also suggests a primary up-trend.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is consolidating above support at 3000. Reversal below 3000 would signal a test of the lower trend channel, while follow-through above 3100 would indicate a fresh advance. It is unclear whether 63-day Twiggs Momentum will oscillate around zero, indicating a ranging market, or above zero, indicating a healthy up-trend. The next trough should clarify this; respect of zero indicating a primary up-trend.

Singapore Straits Times Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is retracing to test support at 9000 after completing a double-bottom. Respect would confirm a primary advance to 10000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow peaking below zero, however, warns of selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9100 + ( 9100 – 8200 ) = 10000

China’s Shanghai Composite followed-through below 2100, confirming the primary decline with a target of 1800*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

The Hang Seng drifts fairly aimlessly. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests selling pressure. Breach of 18000 would signal a primary down-trend but we still appear some way from that.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Asia: India and Japan rise but China remains bearish

India’s Sensex followed through after breaking resistance at 17500, confirming a primary advance to 18500*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate strong buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

Singapore’s Straits Times Index, also in a primary up-trend, is consolidating above former resistance at 3040. Reversal below 3000 would signal a test of the lower trend channel. It is still unclear whether 63-day Twiggs Momentum will oscillate around zero, indicating a ranging market, or above zero, indicating a healthy up-trend. A trough above zero would resolve this.

Singapore Straits Times Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index broke through resistance at 9100, signaling a primary advance to 10000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero continues to warn of selling pressure; recovery would confirm the advance.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9100 + ( 9100 – 8200 ) = 10000

The daily chart shows China’s Shanghai Composite Index testing support at 2100. Failure would indicate a test of the lower trend channel, while respect would test medium-term resistance at 2180. Breakout above the trend channel  would warn of another bear rally. Follow-through above 2180 would confirm. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2100 – ( 2180 – 2100 ) = 2020

The Hang Seng continues to consolidate above resistance at 20000. Follow-through would indicate an advance to 22000*.  Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Asia: India recovers but China & Japan bearish

India’s Sensex broke resistance at 17500, signaling a primary up-trend. Expect an advance to 18500*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow — above zero — indicates strong buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

NSE Nifty is testing resistance at 5350. Breakout would confirm the Sensex primary up-trend. Rising 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is promising but we need a trough above zero to signal a strong up-trend. Target for the breakout would be 5650*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5350 + ( 5350 – 5050 ) = 5650

Understanding Momentum

Momentum is an oscillator, so you would expect equal peaks if the trend is constant. If oscillating above zero, it would be a constant up-trend; below zero, a constant down-trend; with zero at the mid-point, a ranging market. Divergence should ideally show a clear transition from one to the other or at least a sharp difference in the height of peaks or troughs. A trendline drawn under rising momentum will indicate that momentum is accelerating; a trendline break would indicate slowing acceleration — not necessarily a reversal.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is testing resistance at 9000 but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of strong selling pressure, with a peak below zero. Breakout above 9000 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to 10000. Failure of support at 8200 would indicate another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 7000

China’s Shanghai Composite Index retreated below support at 2150; follow-through below 2100 would indicate a decline to 2000*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 – ( 2500 – 2250 ) = 2000

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is more bullish, consolidating above resistance at 20000. Follow-through would indicate an advance to 22000*.  Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would suggest a primary up-trend.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is similarly consolidating above former resistance at 3040. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum — above zero — indicates the primary up-trend is intact. Calculated target is 3300* but the trend channel suggests resistance at 3200.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Asia: India recovering but China & Japan bearish

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its upper trend channel at 2160. Follow-through would indicate a rally to 2250, while reversal would indicate a decline to 2040*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a strong primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2100 – ( 2160 – 2100 ) = 2040

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, however, broke through resistance at 20000 (weekly chart), indicating an advance to 22000*.  Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would confirm — further strengthened if the descending trendline is penetrated.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index continues to warn of strong selling pressure — with a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Failure of support at 8200 would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000*. Breakout above 9000 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to 10000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 7000

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 17500. Breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 18500. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate strong buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

NSE Nifty shows a similar picture. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum rising to a new 2012 high would indicate a primary up-trend. Target for the breakout would be 5650*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5350 + ( 5350 – 5050 ) = 5650

Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke through resistance at 3040. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact. The calculated target is 3300* but the trend channel suggests resistance around 3200.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Asia: China, Japan bearish

There are conflicting reports about whether China is head for a hard or soft landing. China has the reserves and the capacity to implement further infrastructure programs if the economy cools too rapidly. And while its long-term goal is to deflate the speculative real estate bubble, the PBOC has shown itself prepared to kick that can down the road until export markets recover from the euro-zone crisis. The downside to manufacturing a soft landing, as we have already discovered post-GFC, is that the recovery takes longer. So a sharp recovery of Chinese markets is also unlikely.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke its 2011 low at 2150 on the weekly chart, indicating a decline to 1800*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of rising selling pressure. Recovery above 2250 remains unlikely, but would suggest another attempt at 2500.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

The Shenzhen Composite Index broke support at 880 to confirm the Shanghai signal. The peak below zero on 63-Day Twiggs Momentum also indicates a primary down-trend.

Shenzhen Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is more resilient, testing resistance at 20000 on the weekly chart. Breakout would indicate an advance to 22000* — strengthened if 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovers above zero. Reversal below 19000 is less likely but would warn of a decline to 16000 — confirmed if support at 18000 is broken.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is headed for another test of resistance at 9000 on the weekly chart, but a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000, while breakout above 9000 would signal an advance to 10000.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex found support around 17000 on the weekly chart and is headed for another attempt at 17500. Breakout is likely and would indicate an advance to 18500. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the recovery signal.

Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index continues to test resistance at 3040. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact, and breakout would signal an advance to 3300*. Narrow oscillation around zero, however would warn of a ranging market.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Asia: China, Japan bearish

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is headed for another test of long-term support at 8000/8200 on the monthly chart. The latest peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2011 low at 2150 on the weekly chart. Failure would indicate a decline to 1800*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of a primary down-trend. Recovery above 2250 remains unlikely, but would suggest another rally to 2500.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

India’s Sensex is retracing to test support on the weekly chart. Respect of 17000 would indicate a rally to 18500, but 63-day Twiggs Momentum oscillating in a narrow range around zero suggests a ranging market and another test of primary support at 15800/16000 remains as likely.

Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3040. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact, and breakout would signal an advance to 3300*, but a ranging market is more likely.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300