From the Wall Street Journal:
U.S. employers picked up their pace of hiring in June. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 222,000 from the prior month, the Labor Department said. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3% the prior month as more people joined the workforce…..
Source: St Louis Fed & BLS
Forecast GDP for the current quarter — total payrolls * hours worked — is rising, showing an improving economy.
Source: St Louis Fed, BLS & BEA
Declining corporate profits as a percentage of net value added (RHS) is typical of mid-cycle growth, while employee compensation (% of net value added) is rising at a modest pace. Peaks in employee compensation are normally accompanied by troughs in corporate profits…..and followed by a recession.
Source: St Louis Fed & BEA
Average wage rate growth, both for production/non-supervisory and all employees, remains below 2.5% per year. Absence of wage rate pressure suggests that the Fed will be in no hurry to hike interest rates to curb inflationary pressure.
Source: St Louis Fed & BLS
Which should mean further growth ahead.
The May 2017 ABS Labour Force Survey surprised to the upside, with employment increasing by 42,000 over the previous month (full-time jobs even better at +52,100). These are seasonally adjusted figures and the trend estimates are more modest at 25200 jobs.
Seasonally adjusted hours worked also jumped, reflecting an annual increase of 2.3%.
The Australian Dollar surged as a result of the impressive numbers but Credit Suisse warns that there may be some issues with the latest strong NSW estimates:
By state, the gains in full-time employment were particularly strong in NSW…..
But beware the sample rotation bias ….the ABS has confessed that for the sixth time in seven months, it has rotated the sample in favour of higher employment-to-population cohorts. Officials report that this has had a material impact on the NSW employment outcomes.
If the numbers are correct, there are only two areas that could account for the job growth: apartment construction and infrastructure. The former is unlikely to last and the latter, while an important part of the recovery process, are also not a permanent increase.
I would prefer to wait for confirmation before adjusting my position based on a single set of numbers.
One swallow does not make a spring, nor does one day.
I wouldn’t read too much into weaker US job gains of 138 thousand for May 2017. Job gains seem to be tapering in 2017, with February highest at 232 thousand, but this could also be a sign of tightening labor conditions.
Comments from respondents in yesterday’s ISM report showed hints of a tightening labor market:
- “Business conditions are steady, and with competition increasing, it’s making negotiations even more intense to reduce costs.” (Machinery)
- “Business is booming, and getting direct employees is increasingly difficult.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
- “Difficult to find qualified labor for factory positions.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
Unemployment continues to fall, reaching 4.3% for May 2017. The dip below the natural rate of unemployment also warns of tighter labor market conditions.
But there are no real signs of a tight labor market in hourly wages. In fact, hourly wage rate growth in the manufacturing sector is slowing.
Employee compensation as a percentage of value added (Q1 2017) is starting to rise and the percentage of profits (after tax) is declining. The lines tend to invert, with employee compensation peaking and profits dipping ahead of a recession. This still seems 12 months away.
In summary, declining unemployment and rising employee compensation as a percentage of value added both indicate a tight labor market. But soft wage rate growth and falling core CPI suggest the Fed will be in no haste to apply the brakes. At least for the next three quarters.
Inflation is rising, with CPI climbing steeply above the Fed’s 2% target. But core CPI excluding energy and food remains stable.
Job gains were the lowest since May 2016.
But the unemployment rate fell to a low 4.5%.
Hourly wage rate growth has eased below 2.5%, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressures are contained.
The Fed is unlikely to accelerate its normalization of interest rates unless we see a surge in core inflation and/or hourly earnings growth.