Stronger dollar drives Euro & Aussie lower

The Euro continues to test support at $1.3350 against the greenback after a false break above the February high of $1.37. Breach of support would warn of a bull trap, and follow-through below $1.31 and the rising trendline would signal a reversal. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum, however, continues to indicate a primary up-trend; a trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Recovery above $1.37 is less likely, but would signal a fresh advance.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.38 + ( 1.38 – 1.34 ) = 1.42

Sterling is testing resistance at €1.20. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests an up-trend. Breakout above €1.20 would signal an advance to €1.23*. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would suggest another test of €1.1650.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.20 + ( 1.20 – 1.17 ) = 1.23

The Greenback is headed for another test of resistance at ¥101. The bullish ascending triangle suggests an upward breakout with a target of ¥108. Breakout above ¥101 would confirm. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum descended steeply over the length of the consolidation, but completion of a trough above zero (recovery above say 5%) would indicate a primary up-trend. Reversal below support at ¥96 is now unlikely.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 1.08

Recovery of Canada’s Loonie above $0.96 would complete a second higher trough against its US neighbor. Breakout above $0.9750 would signal a primary up-trend, but breach of primary support at $0.9450 is as likely and would signal continuation of the primary down-trend. Another 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would also indicate a down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar is testing medium-term support at $0.93*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the down-trend. Breach of support at $0.93 would confirm, signaling a test of primary support at $0.89. Recovery above $0.9450 is less likely, but would a rally to $0.9750. The RBA needs a weaker Aussie Dollar, without lowering interest rates, and will do all it can to assist the decline.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.975 + ( 0.975 – 0.95 ) = 1.00

The Aussie continues to test support at $1.12 against its Kiwi neighbor. Rising Momentum suggests another rally to $1.16, confirmed if resistance at $1.14 is broken. But breakout below $1.12 would signal a decline to $1.08*. Breakout above $1.16 would complete a triple-bottom reversal with a target of $1.20*.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.12 – ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.08 OR 1.16 + ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.20

Aussie Dollar tests support

The Euro is testing support at $1.3350 against the greenback after a false break above the February high of $1.37. Penetration of the secondary trendline warns of a correction. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum, however, continues to indicate a primary up-trend. Breach of $1.3350 would test primary support and the long-term rising trendline at $1.31. Recovery above $1.37 is less likely, but would signal a fresh advance.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.38 + ( 1.38 – 1.34 ) = 1.42

The greenback completed a higher trough against the Yen, offering a target of ¥101. Breakout above ¥101 would signal a fresh advance to ¥105. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above 5% would complete a trough above zero, continuing the primary up-trend. Reversal below support at ¥96 is unlikely, but would test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.97 ) = 1.05

The Aussie Dollar also weakened against the greenback, retracing to medium-term support at $0.93*. Respect would signal continuation of the up-trend; follow-through above $0.97 would confirm, offering a target of parity*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of support at $0.93 and a Twiggs Momentum peak below zero, on the other hand, would test primary support at $0.89. The RBA needs a weaker Aussie Dollar and will do all it can to assist the decline.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.975 + ( 0.975 – 0.95 ) = 1.00

Forex: Euro breakout, Aussie strengthens

The Euro broke through its February high of $1.37, signaling a long-term advance to $1.46*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy up-trend, but expect retracement to test the new support level. Reversal below support at $1.34 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.28 ) = 1.46

Sterling is testing medium-term support at €1.175. Penetration of the rising trendline warns the trend is weakening and failure of support would signal a correction to primary support at €1.14. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the warning. Recovery above resistance at €1.20 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to €1.225*.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.20 + ( 1.20 – 1.175 ) = 1.225

The greenback is pretty directionless against the Japanese Yen, reflecting indecision. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of trend weakness. Breakout above ¥101 would signal another advance, while breach of support at ¥96 would indicate a reversal.

USD/JPY

Canada’s Loonie is back at parity against the Aussie Dollar. Expect some support at this level. A breach of the descending trendline would alert us to a potential rally, as would reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar encountered resistance at its target of $0.97* against the greenback. Short retracement would indicate strong momentum, while respect of the new support level at $0.95 would suggest a healthy up-trend. Failure of support is unlikely, but would warn the up-trend is weakening.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 + ( 0.95 – 0.93 ) = 0.97

The Aussie Dollar is strengthening against its Kiwi neighbour, breaking resistance at $1.14 to signal another test of $1.16. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum favors a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.16 would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of $1.20*. Reversal below $1.14 is now unlikely, but would warn of another decline; confirmed if primary support at $1.12 is broken.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.16 + ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.20

Forex: Euro and Aussie retreat

The Euro retreated after a false break above resistance at $1.34, suggesting a test of $1.32. Downward breakout would signal a test of primary support at $1.28, while recovery above $1.34 would indicate a primary advance to $1.40*. Momentum predominantly above zero favors an up-trend.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.34 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.40

The greenback is testing the upper border of its downward channel against the Yen. Breakout above ¥98.50 would suggest the correction is over and another test of ¥101.50 likely. Respect of resistance, however, would indicate a test of primary support at ¥94; breach of support at ¥96 would confirm.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 102 + ( 102 – 96 ) = 108; 94 – ( 102 – 94 ) = 86;

The Aussie Dollar retreated below $0.90 against the greenback, respect of the descending trendline suggesting another down-swing. Breach of support at $0.8850* would offer a medium-term target of  $0.86*, but the long-term target remains at $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculations: 0.89 – ( 0.92 – 0.89 ) = 0.86; 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

Forex: Euro strengthens, Loonie and Aussie weaken

The Euro continues to test medium-term resistance at $1.32. Respect of primary support at $1.27 is likely, following bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Breakout above $1.32 would strengthen the signal, while follow-through above $1.37 would confirm a fresh advance, offering a target of $1.50. Reversal below $1.27 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.47

The greenback continues to test resistance at ¥100 against the Yen. Follow-through above ¥101.50 would suggest a new advance, while breakout above ¥104 would confirm, offering a target of ¥114*. Reversal below ¥98.50 is unlikely, but would warn of a test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie respected support at $0.94, suggesting a rally to test resistance at parity against the greenback. The monthly chart displays long-term selling pressure, however, and another test of primary support at $0.94 is likely. Breakout would warn offer a target of $0.84*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum already suggests a primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.04 – 0.94 ) = 0.84

A monthly chart of the Aussie Dollar displays a similar pattern against the greenback, with a broad top followed by breakout below primary support at $0.95. Support at $0.90 provides temporary respite, but the long-term target is $0.80*. Again, declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a primary down-trend.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

The Aussie/Kiwi cross has exceeded its target of $1.15*, steady decline on the weekly chart reflecting the impact of falling commodity prices. Breakout above the descending trendline would indicate a rally to test resistance at $1.21, but that seems a way off with the decline in 13-week Twiggs Momentum accelerating.

Aussie/Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.21 – ( 1.27 – 1.21 ) = 1.15

Forex: Euro hesitant while Aussie falls

The euro is testing support at $1.30, representing a two-thirds retracement of the previous advance. Follow-through below $1.2950 would signal another test of primary support at $1.28 — and a ranging market — while respect of $1.30 would suggest a primary advance to $1.36*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would be a bullish sign.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.30 + ( 1.34 – 1.28 ) = 1.36

Pound Sterling is ranging between €1.16 and €1.19 against the euro. Upward breakout — and penetration of the descending trendline — would signal a primary advance to €1.22*. But breach of support at €1.16 would indicate another test of primary support at €1.14, while a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would suggest continuation of the primary down-trend.
Pound Sterling

The greenback retraced to test the new support level at ¥100 against the Yen. Respect, indicated by follow-through above ¥101, would re-test resistance at ¥103 to ¥104. But reversal below ¥99 seems as likely, and would re-test primary support at ¥94.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie is testing support at $0.95 against the greenback. Follow-through below $0.9450 is likely and would signal another decline, with a target of $0.9350*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 0.9850 – 0.96 ) = 0.9350

The Aussie Dollar continues to fall, with an immediate target of $0.90* and a long-term target of $0.80* against the greenback. The RBA is cheering this on as they need a softer dollar to cushion the impact of a down-turn in commodity prices.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.92 – ( 0.94 – 0.92 ) = 0.90; 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

Forex: Euro falters while Aussie fall continues

The euro fell through support at $1.32 and is headed for a test of primary support at $1.27*. Failure of support would complete a broad head and shoulders reversal, offering a target of $1.17*. Descending 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary down-trend.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.27 – ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.17

Pound Sterling is headed for a test of support at $1.50 against the greenback. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero suggests a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $1.50 would confirm.
Pound Sterling

The greenback is headed for a test of ¥100 against the Yen, after finding support at ¥94. The primary trend is upward and recovery above ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥114*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance at ¥100, however, would warn of reversal.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie found support at $0.95 against the greenback, not $0.96 as expected. Recovery above $0.96 would suggest a rally to test the descending trendline around $0.98*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.97 – ( 1.00 – 0.97 ) = 0.94

The Aussie Dollar displays a small flag as it rallies to test resistance at $0.94 against the greenback. Respect of resistance is likely and would suggest a decline to $0.90*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.92 – ( 0.94 – 0.92 ) = 0.90

Forex: Euro retraces but Sterling weakens on the cross

The euro is retracing to test the new support level at $1.32, respect would confirm the advance to $1.37*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.27 ) = 1.37

Pound Sterling is testing support at €1.16 against the euro. Failure would indicate a decline to primary support at  €1.14 , with a longer term target of €1.10. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the bear signal.
Pound Sterling

The greenback found support at ¥94 against the Yen. The primary trend is still upward and recovery above ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥114*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance at ¥100, however, would warn of reversal.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 104 + ( 104 – 94 ) = 114

Canada’s Loonie respected resistance at $0.99 against the greenback and is headed for another test of support at $0.96. Successive peaks below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy primary down-trend. Breach of  $0.96 would offer a target of $0.93*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 0.99 – 0.96 ) = 0.93

Forex: Aussie Dollar falls below 93 US cents

The Aussie Dollar fell to below $0.93 within hours of the latest FOMC announcement from the Fed. Breach of support indicates another decline, with a target of $0.90*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.9330 – ( 0.9660 – 0.9330 ) = 0.9000

The monthly chart shows the Aussie has broken long-term support around $0.95, signaling a decline to $0.80*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero confirms a primary down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

It is not just a stronger greenback, the Aussie is also falling against the crosses. Canada’s Loonie broke resistance at parity to the Australian Dollar, signaling a primary up-trend.

Canadian Loonie

Forex: Aussie resistance, Yen falls

The Aussie Dollar rallied to $0.955 on the 2-hour chart before encountering selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2011 low at $0.94. Breach would indicate another decline. The next target is $0.90*, with a long-term target of $0.80*. Breakout above $0.955 is unlikely, but would re-test resistance at $0.98.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculations: 0.94 – ( 0.98 – 0.94 ) = 0.90 and 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie, however, respected support at $0.96, heading for another test of resistance at $0.99 or parity. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests continuation of the down-trend. Respect of resistance would indicate another decline, with a target of $0.94*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.97 – ( 1.00 – 0.97 ) = 0.94

The euro broke resistance at $1.32 and is headed for $1.37*. Breakout is some way off, but would offer a target of $1.47*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.27 ) = 1.47

Pound Sterling broke resistance at $1.56, signaling an advance to $1.63*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.
Pound Sterling

* Target calculation: 1.56 + ( 1.56 – 1.50 ) = 1.62

The greenback continues a strong correction against the Yen, but this is a secondary movement and the primary up-trend is unaltered. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Recovery above resistance at ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥113*. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculations: (a) 104 + ( 104 – 95 ) = 113; (b) 100 + ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

Forex: Aussie falls but Euro and Yen unfazed

After a weak rally to $0.98, the Aussie Dollar broke primary support at $0.96, signaling a strong down-trend. Long-term target for the decline is $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.10 – 0.95 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie is also likely to break support at $0.96, offering a long-term target of $0.82*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.06 – 0.94 ) = 0.82

The euro, however, broke resistance at $1.30 and is headed for a test of $1.32. Breach of that level would offer a target of $1.36*. But respect of $1.32 would warn of a head and shoulders reversal — completed if support at $1.27 is broken.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.28 ) = 1.36

The greenback reversed sharply against the Yen in the last week, falling from ¥104 to ¥99. But the scale of the reversal is placed in its proper perspective on a monthly chart. The primary up-trend is unfazed, and recovery above resistance at ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥110*. The 30-year secular bear trend is over. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculations: (a) 104 + ( 104 – 99 ) = 109; (b) 100 + ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

Forex: Aussie, Yen and Euro find support

The Aussie Dollar broke support at $0.96 against the greenback before retracing, the long tail indicating buying pressure. Expect a weak bear rally to test resistance at parity before another decline breaches primary support, offering a target of $0.90*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.02 – 0.96 ) = 0.90

The euro has so far respected primary support at $1.27. Breakout above resistance at $1.30 would suggest a primary up-trend; confirmed if the euro follows through above $1.32. Breach of support is unlikely, but would offer a target of $1.20/$1.22*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.27 – ( 1.32 – 1.27 ) = 1.22

The greenback retreated sharply against the yen as Japanese investors repatriate offshore bond and stock investments — see Mrs Watanabe Brings Home the Bacon. But the longer term trend is unchanged. Respect of support at ¥100 would signal a fresh primary advance. Breach of the long-term declining trendline indicates the 30-year secular bear trend is over. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

Forex: Aussie breaks support while Yen soars

The Aussie Dollar broke primary support at $1.015 and is testing parity against the greenback. Parity is not expected to hold and we are likely to see a test of the next major support level at $0.95/$0.96. Narrow fluctuation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero continues to suggest a ranging market.

Aussie Dollar/USD

The euro is retreating, headed for another test of $1.2750. Respect would signal another attempt at $1.37, while failure would indicate a primary down-trend — testing long-term support at $1.20. The failed advance to $1.50 would be bearish; and breach of $1.20 would offer a target of $1.05*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.20 – ( 1.35 – 1.20 ) = 1.05

Rapid expansion of the monetary base by the Bank of Japan is fueling inflation fears and weakening the yen. Lars Christensen points out that, with competitive devaluation from all quarters, exports are not likely to play a major part in a Japanese recovery. What is more likely is a consumption and investment boom as households invest in real assets as a hedge against inflation.

The greenback broke resistance at ¥100 against the Japanese Yen — a one-third appreciation from the lows of 2011/2012. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but breach of the long-term declining trendline indicates the 30-year secular bear trend is over. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

Forex: Aussie consolidates while Sterling surprises

The euro is consolidating between $1.30 and $1.32. Upward breakout is more likely and would test the high of $1.37. Reversal below $1.30 would warn of another decline, to around $1.24*. In the long-term, breakout above $1.37 would signal a primary advance to $1.50. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough at the zero line would reinforce this.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.28 – ( 1.32 – 1.28 ) = 1.24

Pound sterling surprised with a reversal above resistance at $1.53. Follow-through above $1.54 would suggest an advance to around $1.58, while retreat below $1.52 would signal a down-swing to $1.43*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below its 2011 lows, strengthens the bear signal.

Sterling/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43

The Aussie Dollar rallied off primary support at $1.015. Narrow fluctuation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero suggests a ranging market. Respect of support suggests another test of $1.06.

Aussie Dollar/USD

Canada’s Loonie found support above $0.97 against the greenback, suggesting another test of $0.99. Breach of the rising trendline, however, would indicate another down-swing.

Canadian Dollar/USD

The greenback is testing resistance at ¥100 against the Japanese Yen. The 30-year down-trend of the dollar is over. Breakout above ¥100 is likely, and would suggest an advance to the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

The Fed, ECB and BOJ are all printing money and debasing their currencies. The US dollar, although taking on water, is viewed as the safest — because it is sinking slower than the others. There are signs the Fed is likely to slow quantitative easing in the next 6 to 12 months.

Forex: Euro finds support while Sterling, Aussie and Loonie fall

The euro respected primary support at $1.26 on the monthly chart. Follow-through above $1.32 would indicate another test of $1.37, while breakout above $1.37 would signal a primary advance to $1.50. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum would reinforce this. Reversal below $1.26, however, would signal a down-swing to $1.20.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 + ( 1.35 – 1.20 ) = 1.50

Pound sterling respected resistance at $1.53 against the dollar, confirming a down-swing to $1.43*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below its 2011 lows, strengthens the signal.

Sterling/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43

The Aussie Dollar fell sharply, headed or a test of primary support at $1.015. Narrow fluctuation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero suggests a ranging market. Respect of support would suggest another rally to test $1.06.

Aussie Dollar/USD

Canada’s Loonie respected resistance at $0.99 against the greenback. The primary trend is down and breakout below $0.97  would indicate another decline, while breach of $0.96 would strengthen the signal. Respect of $0.96, however, would suggest an advance back to the 2012 high of $1.03; strengthened if resistance at $0.99 is broken.

Canadian Dollar/USD

The greenback is testing resistance at ¥100 against the Japanese Yen. The 30-year down-trend of the dollar is over. Breakout above ¥100 is likely, after brief consolidation/retracement, and would suggest an advance to the 2007 high at ¥125*.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 75 ) = 125

The Fed, ECB and BOJ are all printing money and debasing their currencies. It is a case of which boat is sinking the fastest, and the US dollar, although taking on water, being viewed as relatively safe. The fall of gold reveals the market view that the Fed is likely to tail off quantitative easing in the next 6 to 12 months.

Forex: Euro correction while Aussie retraces

The euro is headed for a test of primary support at $1.26 on the monthly chart. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, while failure would signal a down-swing to $1.20.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 + ( 1.35 – 1.20 ) = 1.50

Pound sterling is testing the new medium-term resistance level at $1.53 against the dollar. Respect would confirm the primary down-trend, with a target of $1.43*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below its 2011 lows, strengthens the signal.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43

The Aussie Dollar retraced this week to test short-term support at $1.04, but the up-trend is intact and we should expect a test of resistance at $1.06. Failure of support at $1.03 is unlikely, but would warn that primary support at $1.015 is again under threat. Narrow fluctuation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero suggests a ranging market.

Aussie Dollar/USD

Canada’s Loonie rallied off medium-term support at $0.97 against the greenback. Expect some resistance at $0.99, but the CAD is just as likely to test the descending trendline at parity. The primary trend remains down and a test of primary support at $0.96 remains on the cards in the next quarter.
Aussie Dollar/USD

The US dollar is encountering increased resistance as it approaches ¥100 against the Japanese Yen. The 30-year down-trend is over. The advance is extended and a correction likely, but breakout above ¥100 would test the 2007 high above ¥120*.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 80 ) = 120

Forex: Euro declines while Aussie follows through

The euro retreated below support at $1.30, indicating a correction to primary support at $1.2650. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough close to zero would suggest a primary advance, with a long-term target of $1.50*.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 + ( 1.35 – 1.20 ) = 1.50

Pound sterling found short-term support against the dollar but the long-term target for the decline is $1.43*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below its 2011 lows, strengthens the signal.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43

The Aussie Dollar followed through after breaking out above $1.03, signaling a rally to $1.06. Reversal below $1.02 is now unlikely, but would warn that primary support at $1.015 is again under threat. Narrow fluctuation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero suggests a ranging market.

Aussie Dollar/USD

The Canadian Loonie found medium-term support at $0.97 against the greenback, but we should still expect a test of primary support at $0.96. Failure would warn of a decline to $0.90*, but respect is just as likely and would signal a rally to $1.02.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.02 – 0.96 ) = 0.90

The US dollar continues to advance against the Japanese Yen, suggesting that the 30-year down-trend is over. Expect resistance at ¥100, with a possible correction back to ¥90, but breakout would test the 2007 high above ¥120*.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 80 ) = 120

Forex: Aussie consolidates above primary support while Euro weakens

The euro is testing medium-term support at $1.30. Breach of the rising trendline against the greenback already warns of trend weakness; failure of $1.30 would test primary support at $1.25. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend, while a trough above zero would suggest another advance, with a target of $1.42*.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.36 + ( 1.36 – 1.30 ) = 1.42

Pound sterling broke long-term support at $1.53 against the greenback, offering a target of $1.43*. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below 2011 lows strengthens the signal.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43

The Aussie Dollar is consolidating between $1.02 and $1.03 after respecting primary support at $1.015. Breakout above $1.03 and the declining trendline would suggest a rally to $1.06. Reversal below $1.02 would warn that primary support is again under threat. Narrow fluctuation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero suggests a ranging market.

Aussie Dollar/USD

The Canadian Loonie is headed for a test of primary support at $0.96. Breach of support would offer a long-term target of $0.90*, but respect is just as likely and would signal a rally to $1.06.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.02 – 0.96 ) = 0.90

The US dollar has broken its long-term declining trendline against the Japanese Yen, suggesting that the 30-year decline is over and the greenback likely to appreciate for some time. Advance to ¥100 is likely to be followed by a correction to test new support at ¥90 before breakout to test the 2007 high around ¥120*.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 80 ) = 120