Will the RBA cut interest rates in May?

From Justin Smirk at Westpac:

The headline CPI surprised in Q1 falling 0.2% compared to Westpac’s forecast for +0.4%….. The annual rate is now just 1.3%yr compared to 1.7%yr in Q4.

The core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.2% compared to the market’s expectation of 0.5% rise…. The annual pace of the average of the core inflation measures is now 1.5% from 2.0% in Q4 (Q4 was unrevised) and is the lowest print we have yet seen from this measure.

From Jens Meyer at The Age:

Today’s weak inflation numbers are a game changer for the Reserve Bank that will trigger a rate cut, says JPMorgan head of fixed income and foreign exchange strategy Sally Auld.

The investment bank now expects the RBA to cut by 0.25 percentage points next week and to follow this up with a further 25 basis points cut in August, taking the cash rate to 1.50 per cent.

Smirk disagrees:

…..But low inflation, on its own, is not a trigger for a rate cut. Sure, it unlocks the interest rate door for the RBA should it decide it needs to walk through that door as the Bank would not have to wait for another CPI update before doing so. However, it does not mean that the RBA will cut rates! A rate cut is dependent on local economic conditions demanding a rate cut. With unemployment on a new downtrend this is not so at the moment and we suggest that the RBA is waiting to see a new weaker trend in domestic activity and employment before it would embark on such a strategy.

Source: Australian 14 CPI 2016 | Westpac

Source: Three reasons for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut official interest rates in May

Australian Dollar during the 1997 Asian financial crisis

Performance of the Australian Dollar during the Asian financial crisis. The falling Dollar acted as a buffer, protecting the Australian economy from the Asian contagion.

AUDUSD 1996-1998

A similar 25% fall from today’s 72 US cents would offer a target of 54 US cents. No science to this. Simply speculation.

ASX 200 rallies despite weaker AUD

The Australian Dollar followed through below support at $0.8650, confirming a (primary) decline with a target of $0.80*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the bear signal. Recovery above $0.8650 is unlikely.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 respected support at 5300. Follow-through above 5450 would suggest a fresh advance. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero indicates short-term buying pressure. Reversal below 5300, however, would test primary support.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 Financial sector (ex-REITs) is the largest constituent of the ASX 200 index. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero suggests healthy buying pressure despite the Murray Inquiry’s likely call for increased bank capital [AFR]. The sector index successfully tested support at 7050, indicating another test of 7400.

ASX 200 Financial ex Property

ASX under pressure

The S&P 500 continues to test resistance at 2050, the upper bound of the broadening wedge. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of 2250*. Reversal below 2000 is less likely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1850 ) = 2250

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is testing resistance at 3140. Breakout would indicate an advance to 3300. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero suggests indecision. Respect of 3140 would test primary support at 3000.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

The Shanghai Composite Index retraced to test support at 2440, while declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below the rising trendline at 2400 would warn of a correction, while respect would suggest trend strength.

Shanghai Composite

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is weaker. Reversal below 23000 would warn of a test of primary support at 21200/21500. Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) reversal below zero would also be a strong bear signal.

HSI

The ASX 200 is undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250/5300 would indicate reasonable trend strength, but declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term selling pressure. With both Energy and Metals & Mining sectors under pressure, a test of primary support at 5120/5150 is likely.

ASX 200

The Aussie Dollar is also falling, having reversed below primary support at $0.8650 to signal a decline to $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

ASX rallies while Aussie Dollar finds support

The Australian Dollar is consolidating between (primary) support at $0.8650 and resistance at $0.8900. Respect of support suggests another test of $0.89, while a failed swing (reversal below $0.8850) would warn of a downward breakout. Continuation of the primary down-trend is likely and breach of $0.8650 would signal a decline with a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of 5660. Retracement is likely, but respect of support at 5440 would strengthen the bull signal. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to indicate medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 5440 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of 5250.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 VIX continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

ASX breaks resistance

The Australian Dollar continues to test resistance at $0.8900. Tall shadows in the past few weeks suggest committed sellers. Breach of primary support at $0.8650 would warn of another decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero also indicates a primary down-trend.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

ASX 200 broke resistance at 5440, suggesting another test of 5660. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 5440, however, would warn of a test of support at 5250.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 VIX below 15 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

Aussie Dollar and ASX find support

The Australian Dollar is testing resistance at $0.8900, but the primary trend is down. Breakout would suggest a bear rally, while respect would warn of another decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at $0.8650 would offer a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

ASX 200 penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting the correction is over. The index would be further buoyed by a rally of the Aussie Dollar. Bullish divergence and recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breach of resistance at 5350 would strengthen the bull signal. Reversal below 5250, however, would warn of a test of primary support at 5000/5050.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5650 – 5350 ) = 5050

The ASX 200 VIX at 15.5 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market. A significantly higher trough is unlikely, but would be a bearish sign.

ASX 200

Aussie & Euro rally, but for how long?

The Aussie Dollar continues to pressure primary support at $0.8650. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a primary down-trend. Respect of resistance at $0.89 would strengthen the signal. Breach of primary support would confirm, offering a target of the 2010 low at $0.80.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 87 – ( 94 – 87 ) = 80

The Euro retraced to test its new resistance at $1.28. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum (below zero) confirms a strong down-trend. Respect of resistance would warn of another decline, while breach of medium-term support at $1.25 would target the 2010/2011 lows of $1.20.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.28 – ( 1.40 – 1.28 ) = 1.16

ASX and Aussie Dollar rally

The Australian Dollar found support at $0.8650/$0.8700. Respect of resistance at $0.8900, however, would suggest another decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at $0.8650 would offer a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 rallied in line with short-term buoyancy on the Aussie Dollar. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow and recovery above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. But the trend remains down and failure of (short-term) support at 5120 would warn of a test of primary support at 5000/5050. Breach of the declining trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that the correction is ending. Follow-through above 5350 would confirm.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5650 – 5350 ) = 5050

The ASX 200 VIX continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

Aussie Dollar and ASX find short-term support

The Australian Dollar found support at $0.8650/$0.8700 and is likely to retrace to test the new resistance level at $0.8850/$0.8900. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum (below zero) signals a primary down-trend. Respect of resistance is likely and breach of primary support ($0.8650) would offer a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 is also retracing and likely to test resistance around 5350. Peaks below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warn of long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would warn of a test of 4900/5000*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5700 – 5350 ) = 5000

The ASX 200 VIX is rising, but remains at levels typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

Australian investors

Australian stocks have taken a bit of a beating over the last few weeks, including a few of the momentum stocks in our portfolio. Risk of a bear market remains low, but a falling Aussie Dollar has prompted international investors to scale back exposure to Australian equities.

AUDUSD

This tends to become self-reinforcing as falling stock prices then prompt further sell-offs. And repatriation causes further weakness in the Aussie Dollar. The down-trend is likely to continue if support at $0.8650/$0.8700 is breached.

Investors who split their portfolio between the S&P 500 and the ASX 200 have been cushioned from the fall, with their US portfolio showing strong appreciation in Australian Dollar terms.

Australian investors

Australian stocks have taken a bit of a beating over the last few weeks, including a few of the momentum stocks in our portfolio. Risk of a bear market remains low, but a falling Aussie Dollar has prompted international investors to scale back exposure to Australian equities.

AUDUSD

This tends to become self-reinforcing as falling stock prices then prompt further sell-offs. And repatriation causes further weakness in the Aussie Dollar. The down-trend is likely to continue if support at $0.8650/$0.8700 is breached.

Investors who split their portfolio between the S&P 500 and the ASX 200 have been cushioned from the fall, with their US portfolio showing strong appreciation in Australian Dollar terms.

Aussie under the pump but ASX finds support

The Aussie Dollar is now testing support at $0.89 after negative projections from Nouriel Roubini’s team. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend, but expect further support at $0.8650/$0.8700. Breach would confirm a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 is testing support at 5300/5350. Long tails on the last two candles suggest short/medium-term buying pressure, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of long-term selling pressure. Recovery above 5450 would suggest another rally, while breach of 5300 would warn of a fall to 4900/5000*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5700 – 5350 ) = 5000

The ASX 200 VIX is rising, but remains at levels typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

Aussie dollar leads ASX lower

The Australian Dollar found short-term support at $0.90 after last week’s fall. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of another decline, but expect support at $0.89/$0.90 and at $0.8650/$0.8700. Breach of the latter would confirm a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 is testing a wide band of support between 5420 and 5460. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of the rising trendline would suggest a correction to test the primary trendline around 5000. Support levels are indistinct because of frequent back-filling, however, and could establish anywhere between 5300 and 5450.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 VIX is rising, but levels below 20 are typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

Two questions for Australian investors

Two questions for Australian investors:

  1. Does the graph below show an up-trend?
  2. Would it be a good time to buy this stock?

ASX 200

If your answer to both questions is NO, then why would you consider selling when we invert the price scale? The chart is the ASX 200 index. Use View >> Invert Price Scale, or Ctrl+I shortcut key to invert the chart.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5350 ) = 5750

The chart below is not inverted. The ASX 200 VIX tends to behave inversely to the index. A value of 12.2 suggests low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

The Australian Dollar is retracing to test support at $0.92. Respect would indicate that buyers continue to dominate. Recovery above resistance at $0.94 would suggest an advance to $0.97. Follow-through above $0.945 would confirm. Breach of $0.92 remains unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at $0.8650/$0.87.

AUDUSD

ASX 200: Three targets converge

The ASX 200 broke resistance at 5590/5600 and is set for a further advance. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the descending trendline would confirm long-term buying pressure. Convergence of targets, calculated for different time frames, at 5750/5850 also strengthens the signal:

  • 5250 + (5250 – 4650) = 5850
  • 5450 + (5450 – 5050) = 5850
  • 5550 + (5550 – 5350) = 5750

Reversal below 5540 is most unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

ASX 200

ASX 200 VIX near 10 continues to indicate a bull market.

ASX 200

The Australian Dollar is consolidating in a narrow range below resistance at $0.94, suggesting an upward breakout. Only concerted action by the RBA would be likely to counter this. Follow-through above $0.945 would confirm a rally to $0.97. Reversal below $0.92 is most unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at $0.8650/$0.87.

AUDUSD

BHP fuels ASX 200 surge

A surge in production from miner BHP Billiton — shipping 223 million tonnes in FY 2014 against earlier projections of 207 million tonnes — helped the ASX 200 break through resistance at 5550/5560 today. Expect retracement to test support at 5550 and the rising trendline. Respect would confirm a medium-term target of 5700*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5400 ) = 5700

ASX 200 VIX below 10 continues to indicate a bull market.

ASX 200

The Australian Dollar responded to the influx of international buyers, breaking resistance at $0.94. Follow-through above $0.945 would confirm a rally to $0.97. RBA intervention has so far proved ineffectual, but reversal below $0.94 would warn of a test of $0.92.

AUDUSD

Aussie Dollar: Should RBA ‘lean against the wind’?

The Euro rallied to resistance at $1.37 after testing primary support at $1.35 and the rising long-term trendline. Recovery above $1.37 would suggest a rally to $1.39/$1.40, but descending 13-week Twiggs Momentum remains below zero, warning of weakness. Breach of $1.35 is equally likely and would signal a decline to $1.31*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 – ( 1.39 – 1.35 ) = 1.31

The Aussie Dollar is again testing resistance at $0.94. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding above zero suggests continuation of the up-trend. Follow-through above $0.95 would suggest a target of $0.97. Reversal below $0.92 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a decline to the band of support between $0.87 and $0.89.

Aussie Dollar

A monthly chart of the Euro against the Swiss Franc shows how the Swiss central bank intervened in 2011 to prevent further appreciation against the Euro and protect local industry. The Australian central bank faced a similar challenge in 2011, but from a different cause, with the Aussie Dollar rising strongly against the greenback on the back of a mining investment boom. The RBA sat on its hands and failed to “lean against the wind” as called for by Prof Warwick McKibbin. Local industry has suffered irreparable damage in the ensuing period.

Aussie Dollar