Gold falls

Gold broke support at $1250/ounce, warning of a test of primary support at $1200. Breach of primary support at $1260 remains unlikely but would warn of long-term down-trend.

Spot Gold

The greenback rallied on passing of the new tax bill. A test of resistance at 95 is now likely. Breakout above 95 would signal a primary up-trend, bearish for gold.

Dollar Index

Long-term Treasury yields are gradually strengthening, with the 10-year expected to test resistance at 2.50%. Breakout above 2.5/2.6 would signal a primary up-trend which again would be bearish for gold.

10-Year Treasury Yield

A long-term chart of gold shows the precious metal retains its bullish bias. There is strong resistance at $1350 opposed by a broad band of support between $1050 and $1200. Respect of $1200 would signal another test of resistance, while breach of $1150 would warn of a primary down-trend.

Spot Gold

The All Ords Gold Index is also correcting but is somewhat cushioned by the falling Australian Dollar, now at 75 US cents. Respect of the rising trendline would be bullish, while breach of primary support at 4300 would warn of a down-trend.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Gold as a safe haven

The performance of gold can be volatile but at times it acts as a safe haven when geo-political tensions are high and confidence in fiat currencies is low.

Chris Puplava highlighted the recent strong correlation between gold and the Japanese Yen. That is no surprise as the Japanese yen also acts as a safe haven in times of political turmoil. Breakout above 114 to the yen (below 0.00875 on the chart below) would warn of a stronger Dollar and weaker gold prices. Breach of support at 108 (above 0.0092 on the chart below), on the other hand, would be bearish for the Dollar and bullish for gold.

Japanese Yen and Gold

The greenback continues its primary down-trend. Expect another test of primary support at the September low of 91. Breach is not yet likely but would be a strong bull signal for gold.

Dollar Index

Gold continues its test of medium-term resistance at $1300/ounce. Upward breakout is more likely (Twiggs Trend Index holding above zero indicates buying pressure) and would target the September high of $1350. Breach of primary support at $1260 is less likely but would warn of a test of primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

Gold rallies as Dollar falls

The greenback is weakening. The Dollar Index retracement respected resistance at 94, confirming a decline to test primary support at the September low of 91. Follow-through below secondary support at 93 would strengthen the signal.

Dollar Index

The falling Dollar strengthened demand for gold which is testing the band of resistance around $1300/ounce. Upward breakout is likely (Twiggs Trend Index holding above zero indicates buying pressure) and would target the September high of $1350. Breach of primary support at $1260 is most unlikely but would be a strong bear signal for gold.

Spot Gold

The All Ordinaries Gold Index is headed for a test of long-term resistance at 5000 in response to the falling Aussie Dollar and rising gold prices in USD.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Gold and crude oil tend to rise and fall in unison over the long-term. The primary up-trend in crude prices improves the long-term outlook for gold.

Nymex Light Crude

Gold’s next move

The greenback is weakening, with the Dollar Index breaking support at 94. Buying is still evident, with Wednesday’s long tail, but failure to recover above the new resistance level would warn of another downward leg. Next line of support is 93.

Dollar Index

Gold is consolidating above primary support at $1260. A falling Dollar would strengthen demand for gold, making another test of $1300 likely. Twiggs Trend Index holding above zero indicates buying pressure. Breach of primary support is unlikely but would be a strong bear signal for gold.

Spot Gold

Dollar finds resistance as bond yields meander

Long-term Treasury yields continue to move sideways, building a base, with 10-year yields oscillating between 2.0% and 2.6%. Breakout above the 2014 high of 3.0% appears a long way off despite the Fed gradually raising short-term rates. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, reducing demand.

10-year Treasury Yield

Higher interest rates would be likely to strengthen the Dollar. The bear rally on the Dollar Index has run into resistance at 95. Reversal below the rising trendline at 94 would warn of another test of primary support.

Dollar Index

Gold softens as market contemplates another rate rise

The Dollar continues to strengthen, with the Dollar Index testing short-term resistance at 95. Another rate rise from the Fed in December would strengthen the Dollar further. Medium-term target for the extended rally is 97.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold is under selling pressure, with the Trend Index declining to zero, and is likely to test support at $1260/ounce. Breach of support would warn of another decline, with a target of $1200.

Spot Gold

But the All Ords Gold Index ($XGD) is rising, headed for a test of resistance at 5000. Breakout would signal a new primary advance.

All Ords Gold Index ($XGD)

…Largely because the AUD price of gold is rising …as the Australian Dollar weakens. There are still signs of resistance though, with the Trend Index unable to cross above zero. Reversal below $1620 would be a strong bear signal.

Gold/AUD

Gold hurt by Euro fall

From FXWire:

The euro dipped against [the] dollar on Thursday as the European Central Bank’s decision to extend its bond purchases into 2018 at a reduced rate spurred selling of the single currency.

Euro/USD

The Dollar spiked upward on the Euro fall, with the Dollar Index breaking resistance at 94 to signal another (bear) rally. Target for the extended rally is 97.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold fell in response to the Dollar, testing support at $1260/ounce. Penetration of support and the rising trendline would warn that the up-trend is losing momentum.

Spot Gold

But the Euro price of gold hasn’t budged.

Gold/EUR

Nor has the price of gold in Australian Dollars.

Gold/AUD

Which is why the All Ords Gold Index ($XGD) remains bullish, building a solid base for further gains. A higher low suggests buying support and breakout above 5000 would signal a new primary advance.

All Ords Gold Index ($XGD)

Gold and Crude Oil

Nymex Light Crude continues to test resistance at $52/barrel. A rising Trend Index signals buying pressure. Breakout above $52 would offer a target of $54. There is a broad band of resistance between $50 and $54 as illustrated on the chart below. Breakout above $54/barrel would signal another long-term advance. But long-term consolidation below $54 is as likely.

Nymex Light Crude

High gold prices historically tend to coincide with high crude prices. The chart below shows crude oil and gold prices over the last 50 years, after adjusting for inflation.

Gold and Crude prices adjusted by CPI

Present low crude prices suggest that gold will weaken.

Spot Gold rallied off support at $1260/ounce on the daily chart but encountered resistance at $1300. Consolidation between $1290 and $1275 now indicates uncertainty, while a declining Trend Index warns of selling pressure.

Spot Gold

Target 1300 + ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1400

Dollar strength is another key influence on gold prices. After a lengthy sell-off, the Dollar Index found support at 91. Breakout above resistance at 94 would indicate this is more than just a typical bear market rally. Until then, another test of primary support at 91 remains likely; breach would warn of another major decline.

Dollar Index

Dollar rally stalls, Gold bounces

Nymex Light Crude is still testing support at $50/barrel. Follow-through above $52 would signal another advance, with a target of $54/barrel. Reversal below $49 and the rising trendline, however, would warn of trend weakness. A primary up-trend would be bearish for the Dollar and bullish for gold.

Nymex Light Crude

The Dollar Index bear market rally found resistance at 94 and is now retracing to find support. Breach of primary support at 91 would signal another major decline. Respect, on the other hand, would suggest that a base is forming.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold underwent a deep correction but is now rallying as the Dollar stalls. Political tensions remain high, both within the White House and without, and the Dollar remains in a bear market. Breakout above $1300 would reflect strong upward pressure, suggesting another test of $1350. Retreat from $1300 is not necessarily bearish. Respect of support at $1250 would suggest that a base is forming. Breach of $1250, on the other hand, would warn that the primary up-trend that started in early 2017 is weakening.

Spot Gold

Target 1300 + ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1400

Gold hurts as Dollar rallies

Nymex Light Crude respected its new support level at $50/barrel. Follow-through above $52 would signal another advance, with a target of $54/barrel. A primary up-trend would be bearish for the Dollar and bullish for gold.

Nymex Light Crude

At present the Dollar Index continues its bear market rally, testing resistance at 94. Breakout is fairly likely but expect another correction to test primary support at 91. After all, this is a bear market.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold is undergoing a deep correction in response to the Dollar rally. But political tensions are high and the Dollar is in a bear market. Respect of the rising trendline (around $1250) would signal another primary advance. Follow-through above $1350 would confirm.

Spot Gold

Target 1300 + ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1400

Gold corrects as Dollar rallies

The Dollar Index continues to test resistance at its former primary support level of 93. This is a bear market rally. Rising crude prices are bearish for the Dollar and respect of resistance would confirm another decline.

Dollar Index

*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83

Nymex Light Crude has advanced since breaking resistance at $50/barrel. Target for the primary advance is $54/barrel. Retracement to test the new support level remains likely but respect would confirm the up-trend.

Nymex Light Crude

Spot Gold continues in a primary up-trend. Political tensions are high and a weaker Dollar would drive another gold advance. A correction that respects the rising trendline would signal a primary advance. Follow-through above $1350 would confirm. A Trend Index trough above zero, indicating buying pressure, would strengthen the bull signal.

Spot Gold

Target 1300 + ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1400

Gold finds support as crude oil advances

Nymex Light Crude broke through resistance at $50/barrel, signaling a primary advance with a target of $54/barrel. Expect retracement to test the new support level but respect is likely and would confirm the up-trend.

Nymex Light Crude

The Dollar Index is retracing to test its new resistance level at 93. Rising crude prices are bearish for the Dollar and respect of resistance is likely, which would confirm another decline. Twiggs Trend Index has started to rise, however, and recovery above 93, while less likely, would warn of a bear market rally.

Dollar Index

*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83

Spot Gold found short-term support at $1290/ounce, overshooting the $1300 target. Political tensions are high and a weaker Dollar would drive another gold advance. Recovery of gold above its descending trendline and Twiggs Trend Index above zero would strengthen the signal. But breach of $1290 is as likely and would warn of a test of $1250.

Spot Gold

Target 1300 + ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1400

Gold looks for support as Dollar retraces

Spot Gold is retracing to test support after a strong advance to $1350/ounce. Respect of the rising trendline would signal another strong advance but a stronger correction, respecting support at $1300 is more likely. The immediate target for another advance is the 2016 high of $1375. Rising Twiggs Trend Index indicates buying pressure. Breach of support at $1300 is unlikely at present.

Spot Gold

Target 1300 + ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1400

Gold is supported by a weakening Dollar, with the Dollar Index retracing to test its new resistance level after breaking primary support at 92. Respect of resistance is likely and would confirm the long-term target of 83*.

Dollar Index

*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83

Rising crude oil prices would also be bullish for gold, increasing inflationary pressure and also easing pressure on oil-producing states to sell off gold reserves accumulated when oil prices were high. Nymex Light Crude is testing resistance at $50/barrel. Upward breakout would suggest that the recent down-trend has ended — a bullish sign for gold.

Nymex Light Crude

Dollar breaks support, Gold rises

The Dollar Index broke support at 92. Retracement may test the new resistance level but respect is likely would confirm the long-term target of 83*.

Dollar Index

*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83

The Dollar is also falling fast against the Chinese Yuan. Breach of primary support at 6.60 and decline of the Trend Index below zero both warn of a primary down-trend.

USDCNY

A weak Dollar and rising geo-political tensions (North Korea) are bullish for gold. The immediate target is the 2016 high of $1375. Rising Twiggs Trend Index confirms buying pressure. Retracement that respects support at $1300 would strengthen the bull signal.

Spot Gold

Target 1300 + ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1400

Another major influence on gold is crude oil prices. So far, crude has respected resistance at $50 despite the weaker Dollar. Softer crude prices would be bearish for gold.

Nymex Light Crude

Dollar fall buoys Gold

The Dollar Index ended weakly, breaking long-term support at 93. Declining Twiggs Trend Index warns of sustained selling pressure. Follow-through below 92 would confirm another primary decline, with a long-term target between 83 and 84*.

Dollar Index

*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83

A weak Dollar is bullish for Gold. Spot gold is consolidating below resistance at $1300/ounce. Rising Twiggs Trend Index signals buying pressure. Upward breakout above $1300 is likely and would signal another primary advance, with a target of $1400*. Reversal below $1250 is unlikely but would warn of another test of primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

Target 1300 + ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1400

Always the wild card, crude is consolidating below resistance at $50/barrel. The weak Dollar is also bullish for crude oil prices. Declining Twiggs Trend Index warns of long-term selling pressure. That favors another test of support at $40/barrel, continuing the primary down-trend. But breakout above $50 and all bets are off.

Nymex Light Crude

Gold encounters resistance at $1300

The Dollar Index continues to test primary support between 92 and 93. Consolidation or a weak rally is likely but Twiggs Trend Index warns of long-term selling pressure. Breach of support would signal another primary decline, offering a long-term target between 83 and 84* — a bullish sign for gold.

Dollar Index

*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83

Crude continues to test resistance at $50/barrel. Breakout would be bullish for gold but respect is more likely and would test primary support at $40/barrel.

Nymex Light Crude

Gold encountered strong resistance at $1300/ounce. Expect retracement to test support at $1270 and $1250. Reversal below $1250 remains unlikely.

Spot Gold

Target 1300 + ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1400

Gold & Silver advance

The Dollar Index is testing primary support between 92 and 93. Expect consolidation or a weak rally but Twiggs Trend Index warns of sustained selling pressure. Breach of support would signal another primary decline, offering a long-term target between 83 and 84* — a bullish sign for gold.

Dollar Index

*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83

Crude respected resistance at $50/barrel, suggesting another test of support at $40/barrel, continuing the primary down-trend. Twiggs Trend Index again warns of selling pressure. Breakout above $50 is now unlikely.

Nymex Light Crude

Gold is headed for a test of resistance at $1300/ounce, while a rising Twiggs Trend Index signals buying pressure. Breakout above $1300 is likely and would indicate another primary advance, with a target of $1400*. Reversal below $1250 is now unlikely but would warn of another test of primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

Target 1300 + ( 1300 – 1200 ) = 1400

Silver broke through resistance at $17/ounce, a bullish sign for gold. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the bull signal, indicating a test of the April high at 18.50.

Spot Silver

Gold responds to crude strength and Dollar support

The Dollar Index is testing primary support between 92 and 93. Breach of support would offer a long-term target between 83 and 84* — a bullish sign for gold.

Dollar Index

*Target: 93 – ( 103 – 93 ) = 83

Crude continues to test resistance at $50/barrel. Respect would indicate another test of the lower trend channel, around $40/barrel, continuing the primary down-trend. Follow-through above $50 would suggest that a bottom has formed and the next correction is likely to be higher than the last low at $42.

Nymex Light Crude

Gold retraced to test support at $1250/ounce — in line with crude strength and Dollar support. Respect of support is more likely and would indicate another test of $1300. Reversal below $1250 is unlikely but would warn of another test of primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

Silver also retraced and is likely to test primary support at $15.50. Rising Twiggs Trend Index suggests that another test of resistance at $17 remains likely. Breakout above $17 would be bullish for gold.

Spot Silver