Footsie retraces

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test the new support level at 7400. Respect is likely and would indicate an advance to 7700*. Declining Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure but the long-term signal remains bullish.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 7100 ) = 7700

Europe advances

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50, representing the top 50 stocks in the European Monetary Union, continues its advance. Rising Twiggs Money Flow signals strong long-term buying pressure.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

Footsie breakout

The FTSE 100 broke through resistance at 7400, signaling a fresh advance. Another Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero confirms long-term buying pressure.

FTSE 100

Footsie bounce

The FTSE 100 rallied off support at 7100. Breakout above 7400 would signal a fresh advance. Declining Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure; the long-term signal, however, remains bullish.

FTSE 100

Europe strengthens

Germany’s DAX broke through resistance from its 2015 high, signaling a fresh advance with a long-term target of 15000.

DAX

France’s CAC-40 index displays a similar bullish breakout, above resistance at 5000/5200 to offer a target of 6000.

CAC-40

Echoes of the Past: Syria, Chemical Weapons, and Civilian Targeting

Everyone should read this as a reminder of the brutality that states may employ for political ends, whether Ethiopia (1935), Chechnya (1995), Iraq (1998) or Syria (2017). Chemical weapons such as sarin or mustard gas leave horrific injuries, but any deliberate targeting of civilians — such as bombing of hospitals and residential neighborhoods — should IMO be treated as a war crime.

Luke O’Brien is a U.S. Army officer assigned to Aberdeen Proving Ground and is currently a Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Graduate Fellow at National Defense University:

…..Perhaps the most notorious example of this from recent memory, however, was the Iraqi chemical attack on the Kurdish town of Halabja in March 1988, as part of the Anfal Campaign at the end of the Iran-Iraq War. This attack struck the small Kurdish village with both conventional and chemical bombs, including sarin, just as Assad’s forces would nearly 30 years later. The first attacks used normal high-explosive bombs, which both drove civilians into basement shelters as well as broke open the villages windows and doors. These initials attacks were then followed up with chemical munitions, which quickly filled the basement shelters and killed their occupants.

Such brutality was intentional. The attacks were intended to break the back of the Kurdish peshmerga militia by depopulating its support. Commenting on the matter at the time, Iraqi Gen. Ali Hassan al-Majid bragged that he would “kill [all the Kurds] with chemical weapons.” The chemical bombardment of Halabja had its desired effect, with a stream of surviving civilians abandoning the town and fleeing to nearby Iran. This use of chemical weapons, moreover, had another added benefit: driving away civilians and insurgents who had become numb to the effects of conventional weapons…..

Read more at: Echoes of the Past: Syria, Chemical Weapons, and Civilian Targeting

Euro Stoxx signal fresh advance

Spurred by a favorable result in the first round of French elections, Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 broke resistance at 3500 and is likely to test the 2015 high of 3800. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 represents 50 of the largest, mainly industrial, stocks in the Euro monetary area.

Footsie stalls as Pound strengthens

Pound Sterling is strengthening against the US Dollar as well as the Euro (mentioned last week). Recovery of the Pound above 1.27 (GBPUSD) completes a triple bottom, suggesting that a base is forming. Crossover of 13-week Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend.

Pound Sterling (GBPUSD)

Breakout above 1.20 against the Euro (GBPEUR) would strengthen the signal.

The FTSE 100 continues to test support at 7100. Declining Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. A rising Pound is likely to result in a Footsie test of primary support at 6700.

FTSE 100

European stocks unfazed by upcoming election

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50, reflecting the top 50 stocks in the Euro monetary area, appears unfazed by the upcoming French elections. The index has undergone a shallow retracement over the last 3 weeks, while rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

Polls have proved notoriously unreliable in the last year and I will not venture to comment on the election outcome. But breakout above 3500 is likely if Le Pen fails in her bid and would signal another advance.

Cable drags Footsie lower

Pound Sterling strengthened this week on news of an early election. Despite Brexit fears the Cable, as it is commonly referred to by traders, has been strengthening for several months. Crossover of 13-week Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 1.20 against the Euro would confirm the signal.

Pound Sterling (GBPEUR)

The FTSE 100 retreated from resistance at 7400. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure but reversal below 7100 would warn of a correction.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 6700 ) = 8100

European advance continues

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50, reflecting the top 50 stocks in the Euro monetary area, is consolidating in a narrow band below 3500. Rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Breakout above 3500 is likely and would signal another advance.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

The FTSE 100 is consolidating in a narrow range below 7400. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Breakout above 7400 is likely and would offer a long-term target of 8000*.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 6700 ) = 8100

Robots Take Over | Susanna Koelblin | LinkedIn

From Susanna Koelblin:

First large scale shoe robot factory unveiled: Adidas will use machines in Germany instead of humans in Asia to make shoes

Adidas, the German maker of sportswear, has announced it will start marketing its first series of shoes manufactured by robots in Germany from 2017. More than 20 years after Adidas ceased production activities in Germany and moved them to Asia, Adidas unveiled the group’s new prototype “Speedfactory” in Germany. As of this year, the factory will begin large-scale production. What’s more, Adidas will also open a second Speedfactory in the U.S. in 2017, followed by more in Western Europe. According to the company, the German and American plants will in the “mid-term” each scale up to producing half a million pair of shoes per year.

Does this pose a threat to Adidas’s traditional manufacturing base in China, Indonesia and Vietnam? After all, labor in the region is becoming less cheap these days, and manufacturers are increasingly turning to robots. The current model in the apparel industry is very much based on sourcing products from countries where consumers are typically not based. In the longer term Adidas could even produce the shirts of Germany’s national football team in its home country. The shoes made in Germany would sell at a similar price to those produced in Asia, where Adidas employs around one million workers. Arch-rival Nike is also developing its robot-operated factory.

This development in the shoe area is just the beginning and will be leveraged to the apparel industry as well….

Robot factories will not restore former employment levels, with operations run by a skeleton staff. And low employment leads to low consumption. But new factories will require intensive capital investment. This may portend increased demand for capital in the future. With current high debt levels threatening the stability of the financial system, equity investors may be in short supply.

Source: Robots Take Over – The Apparel Production | Susanna Koelblin | Pulse | LinkedIn

Europe advances

Germany’s DAX is testing the band of resistance between 12000 and its April 2015 high of 12400. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Breakout is expected but we are likely to experience consolidation below 12400, or a moderate correction, ahead of this.

DAX

The FTSE 100 followed through above resistance at 7350, signaling another advance. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 7600*.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7350 + ( 7350 – 7100 ) = 7600

Europe advances

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 represents the 50 largest blue chip stocks (Volkswagen, Bayer, Allianz, L’Oreal, Phillips, Unilever, etc.) in the Eurozone, in terms of free-float market capitalization. Breakout above resistance at 3330 signals an advance to 3500*.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3100 ) = 3500

The FTSE 100 is testing support at its former resistance level of 7350. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Respect of support is likely and would confirm an advance to 7500*.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7100 + ( 7100 – 6700 ) = 7500

Long-term target is 8000: 7000 + (7000 – 6000).

The key component driving inflation

Two interesting graphs on inflation from Niels Jensen at Absolute Return Partners:

….similarities between the story unfolding in the UK and the one in the US. Core inflation in both countries is significantly higher than it is in the Eurozone – just above 2% in the US and just below 2% in the UK whereas, in the Eurozone, it is only 0.9%. Furthermore, services are very much the engine that drives core inflation in both the UK and the US (exhibit 6).

Exhibit 6: The drivers of core inflation (US only)Source: The Daily Shot, BEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, February 2017. Data as of December 2016

To a very significant degree that is down to rising medical care costs (exhibit 7). As the populace ages, this can only get worse – at least in the US, where almost all healthcare is provided privately and paid for by insurance companies.

Exhibit 7: US personal consumption expenditures by component (%)
Source: The Daily Shot, BEA, Haver Analytics, February 2017

Source: A Note on Inflation: Is it here or isn’t it? – The Absolute Return Letter

Europe: Long-term buying pressure

The FTSE 100 is consolidating below resistance at 7350. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Breakout above 7350 is likely and would signal an advance to 7500*. The long-term target is 8000.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7100 + ( 7100 – 6700 ) = 7500

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is similarly consolidating while Twiggs Money Flow reflects long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 3330 would signal a fresh advance with a target of 3500*.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3100 ) = 3500

Michael Gove on Brexit, productivity and innovation

Interesting viewpoint on Brexit.  How the EU became anti-innovation, erecting barriers to entry which favor incumbents.

Europe: More bull markets

The FTSE 100 continues to advance after respecting its new support level at 7000/7100. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Follow-through above 7350 would signal an advance to 7500*. The long-term target is 8000.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7100 + ( 7100 – 6700 ) = 7500

A weak correction on Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 over the last 6 weeks suggests buying pressure, also reflected by rising Twiggs Money Flow. Recovery above 3300 signals a fresh advance with a target of 3500*.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3100 ) = 3500