Elliot Clarke at Westpac reports that home price growth in tier-1 cities “slowed materially” in January 2017:
From 29%yr in September 2016, tier-1 new home price growth has slowed to 23%yr. Similarly for the tier-1 secondary market, price momentum has slowed from 33%yr to 26%yr since September.
Tier-2 and tier-3 cities have far lower annual growth rates: 12% and 9% respectively for new homes and 9% and 6% for existing dwellings.
When we compare tier-1 price growth to Sydney and Melbourne, the Chinese bubble is in a different league. From CoreLogic: “Sydney home prices surged 15.5 per cent and Melbourne’s 13.7 per cent over the year ”.
It is hard to imagine a soft landing when property prices have been growing at 30% a year.