Gold: “Trump rally” unlikely to last

Gold reacted with urgency to the news that Donald Trump was closing on Hillary Clinton in the polls. After a lackluster start the rally gained new energy in the last week, with the yellow metal climbing to test resistance at $1300/ounce.

Spot Gold

Experienced pollsters seem to think that Trump’s gains are too little and too late. According to GOP pollster Whit Ayres, in this PBS Newshour interview, Trump has about the same chance of winning as drawing an inside straight in poker. “He has spent his entire campaign preaching to the converted rather than reaching out to undecided voters….”

Unless there is an upset in next week’s election, I expect gold to respect resistance at $1300/ounce, followed by a test of primary support at $1200.

15 thoughts on “Gold: “Trump rally” unlikely to last

  1. Inverted Hammer says:

    Thank you Colin. I’ve been following your excellent blog for years now and intend to ride the Trump gold rally right up til Election Day when hopefully sanity will prevail, as the rest of the world hopes and expects.
    We don’t want another repeat of 2000 when the result was indeed rigged.

  2. Rick says:

    Hi Colin,

    Great posts on the stock market, keep them coming. As for the election and Dr. Ayres comments, I usually defer every 4 years to Real Clear Politics, whose wealth of time and effort in putting together polling “averages” to week out the normal and to be expected GOP or DEM bias, tends to produce fairly accurate predictions.

    As you can see at this link (below), with just a few days to go before the election, they have it as Hillary with a 273 to 265 lead. Trump does not have New Hampshire as of today, but he is dreadfully close by their polling averages. If he gets those 4 electoral votes we have a 269-269 tie which goes to the house, and with a clear majority, you would think Trump would win.

    Just 8-10 days ago Hillary was at 340 electoral votes in this same map at this same link, where today she is at 273. So clearly Trump has momentum on his side.

    Yes I’m a Trump supporter, but I only send you this link to say with all due respect to Dr. Ayres, that with such an incredibly close race at this time, and with Trump having shown to “under-poll” all throughout the Republican primaries, it would seem crazy to somehow assume in any way that Hillary is going to win.

    By all reasonable accounts, this is a tossup race. In addition the IBD/Tipp poll has Trump at 44.1% to Hillary 44% as of today (Nov 3rd). IBD/Tipp has won the last 2 general elections as to which polling agency was the most accurate, so again they come highly respected…….Here is the link to today’s (Nov 3rd) IBD/Tipp poll …..

    http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-and-clinton-deadlocked-race-in-brexit-zone-ibdtipp-poll/

    Here is the link to the highly regarded Real Clear Politics website with their current electoral prediction, again based on “averages” of national polls……

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

    Take care,
    Rick

    • ColinTwiggs says:

      Rick,
      Thanks for the even-handed response. Hard to find it close to the election.
      I am an observer, not a voter, so try to keep the emotion out of it.
      Real Clear Politics, like Whit Ayres, seems to come from the conservative wing but their latest map (302 HRC to 236 DT) also favors a blue win.
      But only the election result will be conclusive.

  3. Caroline says:

    Don’t forget Brexit. All those who voted ‘Leave’ knew what the outcome would be. The media underestimated the power of the people’s vote, and so did the pollsters. The Remainers were in shock, the Brexiters were not, because they knew what they wanted – a kick in the jacksy for the Remainers. I don’t like Trump, nor do I like Hilary Clinton, and I cannot predict what the US election outcome will be but I will not be shocked if Trump does win, because the electorate will have sent a resounding message to the arrogant people who rule their country.

  4. Jon says:

    No need to be nasty about it, Colin. Keep in mind that Reagan won by a landslide and the polls had him behind by double digits 2 weeks before the election. I don’t know where you actually live – but having traveled through various parts of the US recently, I was honestly surprised to see the intensity of the populist support of Trump throughout the states I visited. This election is DIFFERENT. WAY different from anything I’ve seen in my lifetime, that I can tell you with certainty. I don’t trust the pollsters at all on this one.

  5. Gary says:

    Colin

    Here is a link for you regarding Hillary and the collusion with State and DOJ.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/03/sources-99-percent-chance-foreign-intel-agencies-breached-clinton-server.html

    We all find it “hard to believe”.
    Gary

  6. Lee G Young says:

    Remember, many of the polls here have been over over-sampled towards Democrats.

    Trump is correct; the election appears to be rigged!

    I would keep my powder dry and see how everything works out.

    • ColinTwiggs says:

      I find that hard to believe (a rigged election). The system has served both parties well for more than a century. Now a losing candidate claims that the system is rigged. Even pollsters from his own party don’t agree with him. Nevertheless I agree with your suggestion to keep your powder dry until the result is in.

  7. TS says:

    You really should stick to chart reading, my friend. Anyone who forms their opinions from the mainstream pollsters and PBS for crying out loud (LOL) does not understand our world. Unless the rigging is overwhelming instead of just the normal variety, which it could be, Trump will win by a landslide. No one except those in some way sucking on the teat of the authoritarian deep state – social or corporate – want Clinton to win.

    • ColinTwiggs says:

      I have more faith in Dr. Whit Ayres’ analysis than some anonymous poster who pops up 5 days before the election.

      • Mo Huble says:

        Twiggs, you appear to be an Aussie socialist ass.

      • ColinTwiggs says:

        The trolls are out in force today. I seem to have stirred them up with my post about gold’s “Trump rally”.
        Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor of The Daily Telegraph, who I have followed for several years, recently closed his Twitter account. I can understand why. Campaigns of bots and trolls, organized and controlled by large corporations, political parties/candidates, and sometimes even states, are degrading the quality of social media. Youtube is becoming a deep well of “fluff” – disinformation and conspiracy theories intended to muddy the waters and discourage even-handed, considered debate of issues. Taking a page straight out of Russia’s RT or Sputnik. This does not signal the death of social media but will cause it to evolve, with higher barriers to entry or other steps to eliminate the current scourge.

      • Jon says:

        Kinda wondering how that humble pie tastes now? Or do they call it ‘crow’ there in Australia?

      • ColinTwiggs says:

        Jon, I call it as I see it. No apologies for that. But I do like to acknowledge when I have made a wrong call. See Gold: Right for the wrong reasons).

        BTW I haven’t seen any retraction of claims that the election was rigged. Do Trump supporters still stand by that?

        I have seen but not watched some pretty nasty videos on Youtube, calling for Clinton supporters to leave the country and other such rubbish. There is no accounting for idiots but to me the greatness of the American system is acceptance that other people will have a different point of view and a preparedness to set aside those differences after an election and work together for the good of the country. That appears to have faded in recent years, both in the US and in Australia, and is sad to see as it can cause long-term harm to the economy and the democratic system. If you have a minute, read how the Swiss have resolved this.

        Regards,
        Colin

    • Mo Huble says:

      TS, solid post. Poor Twiggs; faith in PBS/Ayers? 🙂

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