From The Guardian, June 14th:
Support for leaving the EU is strengthening, with phone and online surveys reporting a six-point lead, according to a pair of Guardian/ICM polls.
Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage once “don’t knows” are excluded, according to research conducted over the weekend, compared with a 52%-48% split reported by ICM a fortnight ago.
….Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses available referendum polling data on his website whatukthinks.org, noted that after the ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position.
If the UK votes to LEAVE, we can expect:
- A sell-off of UK equities. GDP is expected to contract between 1% and 2%. A Footsie breach of support at 6000 would signal a test of 5500, while breach of 5500 would offer a target of 5000 (5500 – [ 6000 – 5500 ]).
- UK housing prices fall.
- A sharp sell-off in UK banks in response to falling GDP, equities and housing — threatening contagion in financial markets.
- BOE rate cuts to support the UK economy.
- A sharp fall in the Pound due to uncertainty, lower interest rates and lower capital inflows.
- The Euro falls in sympathy, as confidence in the EU dwindles.
- The US Dollar strengthens, causing the Fed to back off on further interest rate rises.
- Volatility surges across all markets.
- Gold spikes upward.
Hat tip to The Coppo Report