From Elena Holodny | May 24, 2016, 10:13 AM
Both WTI crude and Brent crude were around $US48 per barrel on Monday, well above their lows below $US30 per barrel earlier this year. But all of that may come crashing down if one “black swan event” transpires, argued a Bank of America Merrill Lynch global commodities research team.
From their recent note to clients (emphasis ours): “Global GDP in US dollar terms at market exchange rates is stagnant. Continued US dollar strength could force Saudi Arabia either to cut oil production modestly and push Brent back to $50 or de-peg the Saudi riyal, our black swan event, which could lead Brent to collapse to $25/bbl.”
While this certainly sounds ominous for the oil market, it’s worth noting that analysts and financiers are split on whether the Saudis will actually de-peg their currency and undo the current fixed exchange rate with the US dollar….