Is it time to get long the Australian dollar? – MacroBusiness

From David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness:

….Even if the US dollar does fall for a period and adds a monetary tailwind to commodity prices and currencies, it is still pushing against the fundamental commodity price weakness driven by falling Chinese demand growth and excess supply. The latter should still win in the end and the Aussie continue to fall, even if more slowly than it might have otherwise.

Given MB still sees this oversupply as the cracked key-stone in the global business cycle arch, and expects that it is large and pervasive enough that rationalisation can only come through a global scale bankruptcy for producers sovereign and private, as well as the outlook that that poses for local growth and interest rates, our forecasts of 60 cents this year and 45 cents as the cycle low remain unchanged.

Can’t see the Aussie falling as low as 45 cents but I agree with the 2008 low of 60 cents as a 2016 target.

Source: Is it time to get long the Australian dollar? – MacroBusiness

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