Falling retail sales and freight activity: Cause for concern?

The rally in bellwether transport stock Fedex was short-lived and it is once again testing primary support at $164. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm, suggesting a broad slow-down in US economic activity.


The Freight Transportation Services Index reinforces this, declining since late 2014.

Freight Transportation Services Index

But the LoDI Index contradicts, continuing its climb.

LoDI Index

The LoDI Index uses linear regression analysis to combine cargo volume data from rail, barge, air, and truck transit, along with various economic factors. The resulting indicator is designed to predict upcoming changes in the level of logistics and distribution activity in the US and is represented by a value between 1 and 100. An index at or above 50 represents a healthy level of activity in the industry.

Growth in retail trade (excluding Motor Vehicles, Gasoline and Spares) also declined for the last two quarters but remains above core CPI.

Retail Trade ex-Gasoline, Motor Vehicles and Spares

On a positive note, however, light motor vehicle sales are climbing.

Light Motor Vehicle Sales

New building permits for private housing retreated in July but the trend remains upwards and new housing starts are increasing.

Housing Starts and Building Permits

Overall construction spending is also rising.

Construction Spending

Solid growth in spending on durables suggests further employment increases. This makes me reasonably confident that retail sales and freight/transport activity will recover. All the same, it would pay to keep a weather eye on Fedex and the transport indices.

[August 19th – This post was updated for Fedex and today’s release on Housing Permits and New Building Starts]

One thought on “Falling retail sales and freight activity: Cause for concern?

  1. […] domestic US economy slowed in the past few months but increased spending on light motor vehicles and housing suggested that robust employment growth would continue. Upheaval in financial markets (and exports) […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s