Excellent insight into the long-term implications of conflict between Russia and the West. Hosted by Brian Whitmore (RFE/Power Vertical) and co-host Mark Galeotti, New York University professor and expert on Russia's security services, with guest James Sherr, an associate fellow with Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia program.
It's going to be a protracted conflict and Ukraine is just the first major battle.
It's going to be fought in different ways and on multiple fronts: on NATO's eastern frontier; over the countries of former Soviet Union, in the energy market, over the airwaves, and in cyberspace.
We should have no illusions. The West's conflict with Russia is not going away anytime soon, regardless of how the current standoff in Ukraine is resolved.
And what is at stake is nothing short of the future of the international order.
This ain't no Cold War. Russia isn't strong enough for that.
But according to The Russia Challenge, a widely read and highly influential report issued by Chatham House last week, it is shaping up to be a Long War. A protracted looking-glass conflict with a weakening, but still very dangerous, Russia.
On the latest Power Vertical Podcast, we discuss the new Chatham House report and its recommendations.
The panel make some important points:
- The post-Soviet transition to a modern democracy was poorly handled by the West and left Russians with a deep distrust of their motives.
- The most important response to asymmetric warfare is good governance. The last 15 years shows a series of unmitigated blunders that would leave an independent observer with serious questions as to the competence of Western democracies. The West, Ukraine and Baltic States all need to get their house in order.
- Conventional weapons are important, but the primary response should focus on improved intelligence and policing.