Fed patience buoys stocks

The S&P 500 rallied to 2100 on the strength of the Fed’s latest FOMC statement, allaying fears of an imminent rate rise. Follow-through above 2120 would indicate a test of 2200*. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal continuation of the primary up-trend.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2100 + ( 2100 – 2000 ) = 2200

CBOE Volatility Index at 14 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Europe

Germany’s DAX retreated below its long-term target at 12000*. Correction to 11000 would indicate a healthy up-trend, while narrow consolidation below 12000 would be a bullish sign. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure.

DAX

* Target calculation: 11000 + ( 11000 – 10000 ) = 12000

The Footsie rallied to 6950. The short correction is a bullish sign, suggesting a fresh advance. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates healthy buying pressure. Breakout above 7000 would signal a primary advance with a long-term target of 8000*.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke resistance at 3400, signaling a fresh advance. Economic data is not strong, but expectation of further stimulus has buoyed the market. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow rally indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 3050 is now unlikely.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 – 2400 ) = 4400

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is heading for a test of its long-term target at 20000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong (primary) up-trend.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 16000 ) = 20000

India’s Sensex faces stiff resistance at 30000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns the primary-trend is weakening. Recovery above 29000 would indicate the correction is over, while breach of 28000 would test primary support at 26500/27000. Respect of the primary trendline would establish a solid base for further advances.

SENSEX

Australia

The ASX 200 rallied to 5950, the short correction suggesting another advance. Breakout above 6000 would confirm, offering a (medium-term) target of 6250*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 5750 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 5500.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5750 ) = 6250


More….

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Concessions to adversaries only end in self reproach, and the more strictly they are avoided the greater will be the chance of security.

~ Thucydides (c. 460 BC – c. 400 BC): History of the Peloponnesian War