Gold and the bull-trend in bonds

10-Year Treasury Yields found support above the December low of 1.40%, recovering above medium-term resistance at 2.00%. The outlook is hardening around a Fed increase in short-term rates by mid-year. A higher trough would suggest that the long-term down-trend in yields, shown below on an annual chart, is coming to a close. But only breakout above resistance at 3.00% would confirm that the secular bull-trend in bonds has ended.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Dollar is strengthening on the back of low inflation and expectations of higher rates — bearish signs for gold.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold remains in a bear trend, testing support at $1200/ounce.

Spot Gold

Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of another decline. A weekly close below $1180 would strengthen the bear signal.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

One thought on “Gold and the bull-trend in bonds

  1. zzpat says:

    I find your newsletters extremely helpful and read every word. I sometime disagree strongly, but still, very good investment news and commentary.

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