Market bullish despite Europe bank worries

  • S&P 500 advance to 2000 likely.
  • Europe warns of correction.
  • China further consolidation expected.
  • ASX 200 hesitant.

US market sentiment remains bullish, while Europe hesitates on Portuguese banking worries. As Shane Oliver observed: “Could there be a correction? Yes. Is it start of new bear mkt? Unlikely. Bull mkts end with euphoria, not lots of caution like there is now…”

The S&P 500 found support between 1950 and 1960, as evidenced by long tails on the last two candles, and is likely to advance to the psychological barrier of 2000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow recovery above the descending trendline would confirm that short-term selling pressure has ended. Expect retracement at the 2000 level, but short duration or narrow consolidation would suggest another advance. Reversal below 1950 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 1900 and the rising trendline.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1800 ) = 2000

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains at low levels indicative of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 broke support at 3200/3230, warning of a correction to the primary trendline at 3000. Solvency doubts over struggling Portuguese Banco Espirito Santo have roiled European markets. Descent of 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Recovery above 3230 is unlikely at present.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3150 + ( 3150 – 3000 ) = 3300

China’s Shanghai Composite Index displays strong medium-term buying pressure, with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero. Follow-through above 2060 would indicate another test of 2090. Breach of primary support is unlikely at present, but would signal a decline to 1850*. Further ranging between 2000 and 2150 is expected — in line with a managed “soft landing”.

Shanghai Composite

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

The ASX 200 found support at 5450 and appears headed for another test of resistance at 5550. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero, however, continues to indicate hesitancy. Reversal below 5450 would signal another test of 5350, while breakout above 5550 would suggest a long-term advance to 5800*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800