Dollar bounce, gold and copper retrace

The Dollar Index is retracing to test resistance at 81.00/81.50. Respect would confirm the primary down-trend, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78

Spot Gold is retracing below resistance at $1800 per ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1800 would confirm, indicating rising inflation expectations in response to QE3.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

Copper is also retracing. Respect of 8000 would be a bullish sign. Again, a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate a primary up-trend. Breakout above 8600 would confirm, indicating that global economic activity is reviving. Failure of support at 8000 would suggest the opposite.

Copper

Brent Crude is falling after breaking support at $112 per barrel. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. The fall, despite increased inflation expectations, reflects slowing economic activity rather than increased security. Syria and Iran remain concerns in the Middle East. Test of support at $100 would warn of another down-turn.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s