Commodities: Copper and crude rise for different reasons

Copper continues in a primary up-trend, driven by speculative demand with a weakening dollar and anticipation of a US recovery. Retracement that respects support at 8000 on the weekly chart would strengthen the signal.

Grade A Copper

Brent Crude broke resistance at $115/barrel for altogether different reasons. Further disruption of supplies from Nigeria and heightened tensions as the US increases pressure on Iran raise concerns about future supply. Expect retracement to test the new support level; respect would confirm a new primary up-trend.

Brent Crude

* Target calculation: 115 + ( 115 – 100 ) = 130

The broader CRB Commodities Index has breached its declining trendline, but proceeds at a slower pace. Breakout above 325 would signal the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial target of 350*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 325 + ( 325 – 300 ) = 350

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