The Gold-Oil ratio, comparing the price of bullion ($/ounce) to Brent crude ($/barrel), has long been used as an indication of whether gold is in a bull or bear market. When the oil price is high, demand for gold, anticipating rising inflation, is normally strong. The current plunge in oil prices indicates the opposite: weak inflation and low demand for gold. Bullion prices are falling but not fast enough to keep pace with crude, driving the Gold-Oil ratio to an overbought position above 20. Expect a long-term bear market for gold.
Spot Gold is consolidating in a narrow rectangle below $1100/ounce. This is a bearish sign, with buyers unable to break the first level of resistance. Breach of support at $1080 is likely and would signal a decline to $1000/ounce*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero confirms a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000
The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, has fallen close to 30 percent since breaking support five weeks ago.
Barrick Gold, one of the largest global gold producers, is falling even faster.
If long-term crude prices continue to fall, like the June 2017 (CLM2017) futures depicted below, gold is likely to follow and support at $1000/ounce will not hold.