Brent crude has strengthened despite Libya coming back on-stream. Heightened tensions with Iran have increased support above $100/barrel. Breakout above $115 would signal the start of a new up-trend — not a good sign for the global economy. In the long term, recovery above $125 would offer a target of $150*.
* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150
The CRB Commodities Index has also found support: at 295. Penetration of the descending trendline would suggest that a base is forming, while recovery above 325 would indicate a fresh primary advance.
* Target calculation: 325 + ( 325 – 295 ) = 355
